Inflation caused by the U.S.-Iran War means that mortgage rates aren’t likely to fall back below 6.0% this year, according to Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association.
The trade group plans to target provisions in the bipartisan housing package moving through Congress, including efforts to deter corporate investors from buying single-family homes.
Politicians face high stakes heading into what’s expected to be a competitive midterm election cycle, and housing issues appeal to a broad electoral base.
Mortgage Bankers Association Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni said that amid deteriorating immigration and fertility rates, and a flood of new construction in single- and multifamily sectors, it’s become harder to back up claims of a major housing shortage.
The recent rise in FHA delinquencies appears to be an artificial effect caused by the new trial payment plans borrowers must complete before loans can be modified, according to research by the Center for Responsible Lending.
Ginnie Mae MBS issuance declined 10.7% in the first quarter of 2026 due to a seasonal slowdown in purchase lending. Refinance activity held steady, helped by FHA business. (Includes four data tables.)
President Trump’s proposed budget for fiscal year 2027 would appropriate $160 million for FHA’s administrative expenses, level with the 2026 funding level.