Conventional-conforming mortgages accounted for 54.3% of originations in the first quarter of 2026. Rocket Mortgage was the top producer of the loans in the quarter. (Includes two data tables.)
The interest rate outlook is looking better for MSR values than it is for mortgage originations. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces headwinds on a rate cut this year, with some economists anticipating that the next move by the central bank will actually be a rate hike.
The origination share of adjustable-rate mortgages is expected to hold around its current level this year, although a number of variables could cause it to shift.
The Trump administration has directed the CFPB to remind lenders that they should consider that deportation and loss of wages are risks when extending credit to certain noncitizens.
A lawsuit seeks to block a new CFPB rule loosening anti-discrimination regulations; FHA will continue to use the tri-merge credit pull process; bill passed by House would increase fees on VA home loans to pay for expanded benefits for veterans; delinquencies stay firm in April.
Early interest in the VantageScore 4.0 pilot has been strong, but participants note that the new score can be up to 100 points different from Classic FICO.
Economists have dialed back their more optimistic expectations for mortgage rates this year after Iran war-triggered inflation undid the rate boost from MBS purchases by the GSEs.