"We continue to view agency MBS as an attractive alternative to tight investment-grade corporate spreads, with the recent buildup in risk premiums making the relative value case for agency MBS even more compelling," analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote.
Losses are widely expected for agency MBS investors in the third quarter of 2026. However, the same factors that diminish values of MBS holdings also make new investments in MBS more attractive to investors.
The flow of refis into agency MBS nearly halved during the third quarter. Purchase-mortgage volume was up 12.5% on a sequential basis; but over the first nine months, it was up only 1.3% year over year. (Includes two data tables.)
“The companies most at risk tend to be those with limited scale, very narrow product offerings or really weak capital positions,” Norah Zhang, an assistant vice president in the financial institutions group at Moody’s Ratings, said.
Large lenders are flocking to deploy VantageScore 4.0, but others are being more cautious due to shifting GSE guidelines. There’s also uncertainty for investors in MBS and MSRs.