The MBA now projects that the unemployment rate will hold at 4.3% through the end of the third quarter of 2026, before rising to 4.4% in the fourth quarter.
Primary MI volume in the agency MBS market increased at a faster pace at FHA and VA in the second quarter of 2026 compared with private MI usage with the GSEs.
Purchase-mortgage volume declined 14.3% on a sequential basis, while refinances were up 8.0%. The rise was propelled by FHA refis, which grew 6.2% from the fourth quarter to $24.06 billion.
Arch Mortgage Insurance sprinted to the lead among private MIs with $14.81 billion in NIW for the first quarter. The company was the only PMI to increase production from the previous three-month period.
On average, loan-to-value ratios and debt-to-income ratios are much higher for GSE purchase mortgages with private MI compared with loans that don’t carry MI.
Private MIs and the two major government programs provided primary coverage on $74.80 billion of refinance loans, more than double the volume in the third quarter.