The Federal Reserve’s recent suggestion that policymakers consider having the government-sponsored enterprises refinance underwater non-agency mortgages appears unlikely to happen, according to industry analysts and even the Fed. Still, the Fed claims such a program would stabilize the housing market and it would likely reduce losses on non-agency mortgage-backed securities. The Fed said the Home Affordable Refinance Program could be expanded beyond GSE loans – or Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could implement new programs – to refinance non-agency borrowers that would otherwise meet HARP underwriting requirements. According to the Fed, 1.0 million to 2.5 million non-agency borrowers meet HARP refi standards ...

The non-agency MBS market sank to a record low in 2011, with just $27.59 billion in total issuance, although performance has steadied in the dwindling supply of outstanding deals. New issuance of non-agency MBS was down 56.6 percent from the level reached in 2010, ending a three-year string of modest gains. As has been the case since 2008, the vast preponderance of new issuance involved seasoned collateral – either whole loans or repackaged MBS. Over half (52.3 percent) of non-agency MBS issued in 2011 were re-securitizations, yet the volume of such deals was down 75.2 percent from...(Includes two data charts)

There has been little progress in the development of new ways to pay for credit ratings even though researchers have seven proposed systems designed to address the conflicts of interest that have plagued the non-agency MBS market, according to a new Government Accountability Office report. The GAO noted that there were five significant ratings compensation models when it last reported on the subject in 2010, and two more have since been proposed. But the authors of these models have done little additional work to flesh them out, and none has been adopted in the marketplace, the GAO said. “Given that the [rating...

New research is helping foment pervasive rumors about a massive government refinancing of agency-backed mortgages intended to bolster – or replace – the underperforming Home Affordable Refinance Program for underwater Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac borrowers. Earlier this month, industry watchers began to speculate about possible HARP changes following a note by the Washington Research Group’s Jaret Sieberg – picked up by an American Enterprise Institute blog posting – that predicts President Obama will appoint a “housing advocate” to the Federal Housing Finance Agency via a recess appointment. Such an...

Insurance companies will likely increase their investment in non-agency residential MBS, with market and regulatory influences encouraging movement toward hybrid and floating-rate securities as opposed to fixed-rate bonds, according to some top securities industry analysts. The primary driver on the regulatory level is the anticipated slight rise in capital requirements expected to result from a recent action by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, the association of state insurance regulators. On Dec. 27, 2011, the NAIC released updated pricing designations that...

Principal reduction to ease negative equity situations may have a lot of positive effects for homeowners, but recent research suggests it may have little impact on worker mobility. A forthcoming working paper by Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, contends that research showing underwater borrowers are 33 percent less likely to move to better employment markets is flawed because it ignores key data. In an analysis of Census Bureau housing data, Schulhofer-Wohl reached the opposite conclusion, that underwater borrowers are more likely to move, suggesting that principal...

Early indicators suggest that mortgage origination volume was up significantly during the fourth quarter of 2011, but momentum heading into the new year was relatively weak. In earnings reports, eight top lenders have reported solid increases in production levels over the previous quarter, and as a group they posted their best three-month volume of the year. Wells Fargo, U.S. Bank and BB&T reported hefty increases in production during the fourth quarter, with Citi, PHH Mortgage and PNC also putting up big numbers. Chase managed a much smaller increase than its peers, while...(Includes two data charts)

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau wasted no time in moving forward aggressively with its new director, last week releasing its mortgage origination examination procedures that will be used to scrutinize mortgage lenders and brokers in both the bank and nonbank sector of the industry. The procedures are the clearest indication yet that nonbanks are generally going to be held to the same standards, expectations and requirements as their more traditional banking counterparts. The new procedures outline the CFPB’s supervisory approach to making sure mortgage originators comply with federal...

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have drummed up little support for their controversial proposal to pay mortgage servicers a flat fee for performing loans, but one top-tier lender has stepped forward to publicly endorse the idea. Ally Financial in a comment letter to the Federal Housing Finance Agency said it supports the so-called fee-for-service proposal, combined with a policy that would provide for the separation of excess interest-only cash flows from the underlying mortgage servicing rights. The company, which ranked as the fifth-largest servicer in the market as of the end of September, did...

Citing the urgent need to take “immediate action to prevent more foreclosures,” a group of more than two dozen House lawmakers is urging President Obama to appoint a new permanent Federal Housing Finance Agency director via a recess appointment. In a letter sent to the president last week, 28 California Democrats said the FHFA under the stewardship of Acting Director Edward DeMarco has “consistently and erroneously interpreted its mandate” as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s regulator “far too narrowly” and failed to help struggling California homeowners. “As the fiduciary of government-backed...