A surge in refinance activity — especially rate-term transactions — provided much of the fuel for April’s 16% increase in agency single-family MBS. So far, 2025 is running 14% ahead of last year’s pace. (Includes two data tables.)

The Trump administration appears unlikely in the near-term to work on ending the conservatorships of the GSEs. And any potential moves will aim to limit disruptions in the mortgage market, according to officials in the administration.

Uncertainty on movements by the Fed has prompted sharp swings in the value of agency MBS as well as in the prices of hedges commonly used by REITs.

First-quarter earnings reports suggest the reduced size of Fannie Mae’s guarantee book of business may be impacting its market share vis a vis Freddie Mac.

Recent changes in FHA’s loss-mitigation waterfall will probably mean fewer loan modifications enter Ginnie Mae’s Extended Term MBS, Goldman Sachs said in a recent report.

AGNC watched as volatility rocked the agency MBS market this month. The REIT counted on its cash and liquidity to avoid selling assets at a loss. Other REITs also survived unscathed.

During the early days of the pandemic, mortgage rates dropped, reducing the value of mortgage servicing rights. This month, while tariff-related volatility prompted spreads on agency MBS to widen, lenders selling loans were helped by rising rates, which increase the value of MSRs.

MBS trading increased in March, but not dramatically. Still, concerns persist, including Treasury yields bucking historical norms. Ginnie Mae delinquencies are also an issue.

MBS exempt from Maryland licensing requirements after all; Progress Residential scraps planned single-family rental securitization; ICE offers anonymous requests-for-quote for MBS sales.

In the Trump economy, predicting which way rates might go in the wake of a stock market swoon is more difficult than usual. As for MBS spreads narrowing, don’t bet on it anytime soon.