AGNC watched as volatility rocked the agency MBS market this month. The REIT counted on its cash and liquidity to avoid selling assets at a loss. Other REITs also survived unscathed.
During the early days of the pandemic, mortgage rates dropped, reducing the value of mortgage servicing rights. This month, while tariff-related volatility prompted spreads on agency MBS to widen, lenders selling loans were helped by rising rates, which increase the value of MSRs.
MBS trading increased in March, but not dramatically. Still, concerns persist, including Treasury yields bucking historical norms. Ginnie Mae delinquencies are also an issue.
In the Trump economy, predicting which way rates might go in the wake of a stock market swoon is more difficult than usual. As for MBS spreads narrowing, don’t bet on it anytime soon.
S&P says the current AA+ rating enjoyed by the GSEs is a function of their government support. Because of their capital shortfalls, both GSEs have a B- standalone credit profile rating.
Rocket is set to acquire Mr. Cooper, the second-largest servicer of loans in agency MBS. Rocket, which has a significantly high recapture rate, plans to boost retention efforts on Mr. Cooper’s portfolio.
GSE watchers believe that, to appropriately compensate the taxpayer for their government guarantee, Fannie and Freddie would have to pay a commitment fee as high as $46 billion a year.
Housing finance aficionados like the prospect of a GSE exit from conservatorship that includes the retention of the Treasury’s PSPA, especially if done in conjunction with a sovereign wealth fund.