Insurance companies will likely increase their investment in non-agency residential MBS, with market and regulatory influences encouraging movement toward hybrid and floating-rate securities as opposed to fixed-rate bonds, according to some top securities industry analysts. The primary driver on the regulatory level is the anticipated slight rise in capital requirements expected to result from a recent action by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, the association of state insurance regulators. On Dec. 27, 2011, the NAIC released updated pricing designations that...

New research is helping foment pervasive rumors about a massive government refinancing of agency-backed mortgages intended to bolster – or replace – the underperforming Home Affordable Refinance Program for underwater Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac borrowers. Earlier this month, industry watchers began to speculate about possible HARP changes following a note by the Washington Research Group’s Jaret Sieberg – picked up by an American Enterprise Institute blog posting – that predicts President Obama will appoint a “housing advocate” to the Federal Housing Finance Agency via a recess appointment. Such an...

The non-agency MBS market sank to a record low in 2011, with just $27.59 billion in total issuance, although performance has steadied in the dwindling supply of outstanding deals. New issuance of non-agency MBS was down 56.6 percent from the level reached in 2010, ending a three-year string of modest gains. As has been the case since 2008, the vast preponderance of new issuance involved seasoned collateral – either whole loans or repackaged MBS. Over half (52.3 percent) of non-agency MBS issued in 2011 were re-securitizations, yet the volume of such deals was down 75.2 percent from...(Includes two data charts)

There has been little progress in the development of new ways to pay for credit ratings even though researchers have seven proposed systems designed to address the conflicts of interest that have plagued the non-agency MBS market, according to a new Government Accountability Office report. The GAO noted that there were five significant ratings compensation models when it last reported on the subject in 2010, and two more have since been proposed. But the authors of these models have done little additional work to flesh them out, and none has been adopted in the marketplace, the GAO said. “Given that the [rating...

The Federal Home Loan Banks continue to show an investment preference for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage-backed securities during the third quarter of 2011, posting a modest increase from the previous quarter, according to a new analysis by Inside The GSEs based on data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency.Ginnie Mae securities, meanwhile, remained popular within the FHLBank system during the three-month period ending Sept. 30, 2011.GSE MBS accounted for 68.9 percent of combined FHLBank MBS portfolios, up 1.7 percent from the second quarter of 2011. The Finance Agency’s data do not separately break out Fannie and Freddie volume or share.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac issued $261.59 billion in single-family mortgage-backed securities during the fourth quarter of 2011, a booming 47.6 percent improvement from a modest third quarter that followed two straight quarterly declines during the first six months of 2011.The recently completed October-December cycle represented the highest quarterly production level of the year, but it still came up 21.2 percent short of the volume generated during the fourth quarter of 2010.For the year, GSE single-family securitizations were down 12.7 percent from the volume generated during 2010.

The aging of the subprime and prime mortgages that back the shrinking universe of non-agency MBS is gradually changing the performance trends of these loans, according to analysts speaking at a Fitch Ratings conference in New York this week. Selection bias – changes in the composition of the remaining subprime and prime mortgage pools as borrowers default or refinance – will mean different things for different asset classes, but differences between the two will likely become less pronounced over the next year, analysts said. Grant Bailey, a managing director at Fitch, explained that in many ways...

Despite lower mortgage rates, MBS prepayment speeds slowed across the board in December, particularly for the recent low coupons, while speeds for higher coupons were up slightly, according to securitization analysts. Researchers varied slightly in their estimates, saying speeds for 30-year Fannie Mae securities slowed 2-6 conditional prepayment rate for the recent low coupons (3.5-4.5 percent from 2011 and 2010). Barclays Capital analysts attributed the slowdown to reduced refinancing activity during the December holiday season. The weighted average CPR for all Fannie Mae MBS declined to...

Reducing monthly payments to a sustainable level for distressed borrowers who are significantly underwater on their mortgages may require principal reductions, in addition to interest rate concessions and loan term extensions, but pursuing such a policy is not without significant drawbacks, according to a Federal Reserve analysis. In a white paper sent to the banking committees on Capitol Hill last week, the Fed dove into the controversial issue of whether Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should be taking more aggressive steps like principal reduction to help distressed borrowers and shore up...

The Securities and Exchange Commission has adopted a modified policy that will require defendants in settlement agreements to admit to wrongdoing if they have already pled guilty in parallel criminal cases. “Following a review by senior enforcement staff that began this spring and separate discussions with the commissioners over the last several months, last week we modified our settlement language for cases involving criminal convictions where a defendant has admitted violations of the criminal law,” said SEC Enforcement Director Robert Khuzami.The new policy does not require admissions...