When interest rates decline, the prepayment environment for agency MBS is likely to be much different compared with previous refinance booms, according to industry participants.

There’s more demand for mortgage servicing rights than there is supply at the moment, helping to keep prices for the assets elevated. Even if MSR sales increase this year, prices are expected to remain firm.

Many large nonbank mortgage lenders increased production by double digits during the first quarter of 2024 while total originations were up only 3.2% from the fourth quarter. (Includes data table.)

Servicers face more onerous advance requirements for delinquent loans in Ginnie MBS compared with loans in GSE MBS.

New-home sales declined by 11.3% in May.

The decline was driven by loans eligible for sale to the government-sponsored enterprises along with FHA and VA mortgages.

Some planned MSR sales are being scrapped because the seller has the MSR marked at a higher level than the highest bid.

A big boost in UWM's originations led to an increase in the broker share of the nonconforming market in the first quarter of 2024.

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Bose George said, "Given the modest scale of the announced pilot program, there should be no meaningful impact on the mortgage market."

UWM more than tripled its nonconforming originations in the first quarter of 2024 compared with the first quarter of 2023. Brokers gained share from both the retail and correspondent channels. (Includes data table.)