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Inside Mortgage Trends
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More Loans Underwater than Previously Estimated

June 1, 2012
Nearly one-third of homeowners are underwater on their mortgages, Zillow reported last week, a significantly higher number than other analysts have estimated. Zillow, a real estate information company, said nearly 16 million homeowners, or 31.4 percent, owe more than their house is worth. The company partnered with credit agency TransUnion to take into account second mortgages to calculate total loan-to-value ratios. In its most recent report, CoreLogic said 11.1 million homeowners were in a negative equity situation in March. CoreLogic relies on public data and bases its estimates on the...
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Mortgage Trends

June 1, 2012
The housing inventory is at its lowest level since 2006, according to Pro Teck Valuation Services. The number of homes listed for sale in May was down 21 percent nationally, with the remaining housing inventory averaging 6.3 months. Accord to the CEO of Pro Teck, this indicates that the housing market as a whole is stabilizing. CEO Tom O’Grady noted that the inventory of housing was at or below a five-month supply throughout the 2002 to 2005 period, a time when house prices were recording their biggest gains. The firm reported positive trends in states like Michigan, Illinois and parts of California...
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Banks and Thrifts Hold Their Own in ABS Market That Slid Modestly in Early 2012

May 25, 2012
Banks and thrifts held $150.1 billion of non-mortgage ABS in their investment portfolios at the end of the first quarter of 2012, according to a new Inside MBS & ABS analysis of call report data. Commercial banks accounted for $135.4 billion of that amount, which was down 2.1 percent from the end of last year. Thrifts did not report their ABS holdings until the first quarter of 2012. The biggest category of bank and thrift ABS holdings were consumer loans – mostly student loans – which accounted for 32.6 percent of the institutions’ ABS investments. Credit card ABS...(Includes one data chart)
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ResCap’s Bankruptcy Aimed at Non-Agency Claims

May 25, 2012
Residential Capital’s bankruptcy filing last week was part of an effort to settle repurchase claims sought by non-agency mortgage-backed security investors. In conjunction with the bankruptcy, 17 institutional investors agreed to an $8.7 billion claim that will need approval by the court and is unsecured, suggesting that the final settlement payout could be much lower. ResCap is a subsidiary of Ally Financial. Michael Carpenter, CEO of Ally, said the bankruptcy gives Ally further distance from “very large” rep and warrant claims ...
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Investor Concerns Persist on Servicing Settlement

May 25, 2012
While non-agency mortgage-backed security investors did not file a formal challenge to the $25.0 billion servicing settlement, they remain concerned with the implementation of principal forgiveness loan modifications. The latest qualms were raised last week in a letter to Shaun Donovan, secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, from Sens. Sherrod Brown, D-OH, and Bob Corker, R-TN. “Because any settlement could dramatically affect [pension funds and retirement funds], their managers should ...
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Bank of America to Repurchase $330M From Freddie MBS Pools, But Still Faces Huge Unresolved Claims

May 24, 2012
Freddie Mac announced this week that investors in certain of its mortgage-backed securities would see an unexpected increase in prepayment speeds after the government-sponsored enterprise resolved “certain contractual matters” with one of its seller/servicers. Bank of America was the issuer of the $1.29 billion of affected MBS pools, which were issued between July 2009 and June 2011, according to an Inside Mortgage Finance analysis. Freddie Mac said the total amount to be repurchased is $330 million, which would represent a small fraction of the $8.1 billion in outstanding...(Includes one data chart)
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Portfolio Analyzer Helps Firms Manage Risk

May 18, 2012
With banks under increased pressure to manage their exposure to risks related to mortgage-backed securities and whole loans, Moody’s Analytics has updated its risk and capital allocation tool so clients can run their mortgage portfolio under various stressed scenarios and get a better handle on potential losses. The latest iteration of the Mortgage Portfolio Analyzer features an enhanced framework for modeling stressed macroeconomic scenarios, defaults, prepayments and severities. The tool that the firm has put together can “simultaneously benefit institutions that have portfolios of not...
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Buyback Activity Slowed Sharply in 1Q12, But Massive Overhang Remains

May 18, 2012
Mortgage buybacks may have declined significantly during the first quarter of 2012, but a new Inside Mortgage Trends analysis shows that the volume of unresolved repurchase demands continued to set new record highs. Bank call-report data show that financial institutions reported a total of $4.12 billion in mortgage repurchases and indemnifications during the first quarter of this year. That was down 23.0 percent from the fourth quarter of 2011 and the lowest quarterly volume since the beginning of last year. It is particularly encouraging since the first-quarter data...(Includes two data charts)
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Fitch Downgrades WaMu Covered Bond Program, Investor Demand in U.S. Continues to Expand

May 18, 2012
This week, Fitch Ratings downgraded Washington Mutual’s covered bonds to ‘AA-’ from ‘AA’ and placed them on rating watch negative, after last week’s downgrade of the issuer default rating of the program sponsor, JPMorgan Chase Bank. That rating action followed JPMorgan Chase’s disclosure last week of a $2 billion trading loss on its synthetic credit positions in its chief investment office. The positions were intended to hedge JPM's overall credit exposure, particularly during periods of credit stress. That loss estimate has since grown to $3 billion, it was reported this week. The JPMorgan...
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Fannie Profits, Freddie Loses in 1Q12

May 18, 2012
The two GSEs divulged not so wildly divergent earnings during the first quarter of 2012. Fannie Mae posted its first free-and-clear profit since being drafted into government conservatorship some 3½ years ago while Freddie’s positive net income wasn’t enough to honor its dividend obligation and it was forced to ask taxpayers for further fiscal life-support. One year after it posted a $6.5 billion net loss, Fannie reported $2.7 billion net income during the first quarter, following to a net loss of $2.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2011. Freddie actually reported net income in the first quarter and the fourth quarter, $577 million and $619 million respectively, but not enough to repay $1.8 billion in preferred stock dividends for the first three months of 2012.
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