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Fed Chief Yellen Gives Qualified Signals About a Possible Rate Hike, Contrarians Dismiss Prospects

July 17, 2015
In the eyes of some Federal Reserve watchers, Fed chief Janet Yellen has become a master of making every public appearance a bit of a Rorschach test, giving fans and critics alike just enough of what they want to hear to reinforce their pre-existing viewpoints. Her semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony on Fed monetary policy before Congress this week was another prime example of this, with Wall Street types hopeful of a rise in interest rates sometime later this year, and contrarians increasingly unconvinced and dismissive. For instance, labor markets are showing...
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The Mortgage IPO Market is Dead – for Now; Short Positions Ease Somewhat at Certain Mortgage Shops

July 16, 2015
For mortgage companies that were hoping to go public this year, they might as well forget about it. As one industry analyst put it: “The IPO market isn’t even on life support. It’s just plain dead.” Although many privately held mortgage firms are enjoying a strong year in both lending and profitability, the initial public offering market is dormant for three reasons: Nationstar Mortgage, Ocwen Financial and Walter Investment Management Corp. This year, the once “big three” nonbanks have paid...
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Greek Debt Crisis Causes MBS Volatility, but the Big Fear is China; A Rate Plunge in the Cards?

July 10, 2015
Estimating where MBS prices might be headed has never been an easy game – and thanks to the debt crisis in Greece and a stock meltdown in China, it’s become a whole lot more difficult of late. But for now, analysts and market watchers are certain of one thing: MBS prices have been volatile the past two weeks thanks to a flight to quality, forcing investors everywhere to buy U.S. Treasuries. And because mortgages track Treasuries, yields have fallen and prices have increased. “The Greek crisis already has taken...
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Mortgage-Related Interest Rate Risk at Banks a Concern For Regulators, with an Emphasis on MBS Holdings

July 10, 2015
With interest rates expected to increase at some point in the future, federal regulators continue to raise concerns about mortgage-related interest rate risk for banks. The risk perspective report issued last week by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency was the sixth-consecutive semi-annual report from the federal regulator to warn about the risks posed to small banks by holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities. “Material concentrations in MBS could make...
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Hedge-Fund Adviser Agrees to Pay $5 Million to SEC To Resolve Fraudulent Fund-Valuation Allegations

July 10, 2015
No matter how cleverly hidden, the Securities and Exchange Commission can eventually ferret out bad business practices – a costly lesson learned by AlphaBridge Capital Management. The SEC ordered AlphaBridge, a registered hedge-fund adviser, and two of its principals to pay a $5 million penalty for allegedly inflating the prices of illiquid MBS held in hedge-fund portfolios managed by the firm. The SEC charged...
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Servicers Make Progress on Settlements

July 10, 2015
Servicers involved in national settlements are largely in compliance and making progress toward completing their loss-mitigation requirements, according to reports released in the past two weeks. Joseph Smith, the monitor of a settlement involving non-agency mortgage-backed securities that requires JPMorgan Chase to complete $4.0 billion in credited loss mitigation, said that as of the end of 2014, Chase was credited with $3.32 billion in relief ...
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Issuance of Government-Backed Ginnie MBS Increases in 2Q15

July 10, 2015
Ginnie Mae issuance of government-insured mortgage-backed securities rose a whopping 47.3 percent in the second quarter of 2015 from the previous quarter, powered by a robust FHA refinancing volume, according to an Inside FHA/VA Lending analysis of agency data. Government-backed Ginnie MBS production in the second quarter totaled $117.5 billion, up from $79.8 billion in the prior quarter. Volume year-to-date also increased by 57.7 percent from the first six months of last year. From May to June, government-backed securitization increased a modest 2.9 percent. FHA loans comprised 62.6 percent of Ginnie MBS issuance in the second quarter while VA accounted for 33.7 percent. Securitized loans with a Rural Housing Service guaranty represented 3.6 percent of total Ginnie MBS issuance during the period. FHA loan securitization was robust in the second quarter, as volume ... [ Charts ]
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MBS & ABS Issuance Jumped Higher in 2Q15 As Agency Single-Family Market Heated Up

July 2, 2015
Residential MBS production continued to gain speed in the second quarter of 2015 while non-mortgage securitization remained strong, according to a new Inside MBS & ABS analysis. A total of $419.42 billion of single-family MBS and non-mortgage ABS were issued during the second quarter, an increase of 21.2 percent from the first three months of the year. It was the strongest new issuance total since the third quarter of 2013 and marked the fifth straight quarterly increase since the market hit a cyclical low at the beginning of last year. Most of the gain came from the agency MBS sector, which totaled $352.73 billion in new issuance, a gain of 29.7 percent from the first quarter. All three agencies posted hefty gains, with the biggest coming at Ginnie Mae, where new issuance jumped 46.7 percent to hit $120.36 billion. A lot of Ginnie’s growth is coming from an unusual surge of refinance activity, which accounted for ... [ charts]
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Former Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse Execs Ready Launch of New Non-Agency Conduit

July 2, 2015
A handful of former top executives in the mortgage departments of Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse have launched Shelter Growth Capital Partners and hope to eventually purchase and then securitize mostly residential loans that don’t meet parameters of the qualified mortgage test. According to marketing materials provided to select originators and then passed on to Inside MBS & ABS, the Shelter Growth (or SG Capital) conduit will focus mostly on A-minus quality loans. A preliminary loan menu distributed this spring states that SG will purchase 30-year mortgages with FICO scores as low as 620. Loan amounts will range from $150,000 to $1 million. It also will finance consumers who went through a foreclosure as recently as two years ago. The coupons on the offering grid range from 5.75 percent to 9.00 percent. According to the marketing materials, SG Capital requires that all the mortgages be ...
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Risk to Investors in Agency MBS Seen as Limited

July 2, 2015
Clean-up calls executed by U.S. Bank on Ginnie Mae real estate mortgage investment conduits in recent years have caused problems for some investors, but industry analysts suggest that overall, the risk agency MBS investors face from clean-up calls is limited. Analysts at Performance Trust Capital Partners, an investing firm, warned recently that U.S. Bank has made about $53 million in profit the past three years by completing clean-up calls on Ginnie REMICs where the bank was the trustee. On Ginnie REMICs, trustees are allowed to complete clean-up calls when the outstanding balance on the security falls to less than 1.0 percent of the aggregate of the original class principal balance for the security. When executing a clean-up call, the trustee pays off the investors in the MBS at par. On Ginnie deals where U.S. Bank has completed clean-up calls, the REMICs have generally been trading at ...
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