With inflation weakening and continuing to lag behind the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee’s 2 percent target, the Fed this week surprised no one and unanimously decided to leave the federal funds target rate unchanged at 1.00 percent to 1.25 percent. The U.S. central bank also indicated it will likely begin to gradually unload its enormous balance sheet “relatively soon,” which market participants and observers read as sometime this fall – probably with an announcement in September, with run-off set to begin in October. In terms of its portfolio, the FOMC said...

A new source of risk for residential MBS has emerged in the wake of Wells Fargo’s recent decision to hold back significant funds from MBS transactions to cover potential litigation expenses resulting from investor claims. In its latest report, Moody’s Investors Service warned that trustee holdbacks, such as Wells Fargo’s action, have a negative effect on the MBS transactions. Such actions reduce, at least temporarily, the funds available to pay interest and principal to bondholders, the rating agency said. Last month, Wells Fargo notified...

JPMorgan launched a new index this week aimed at connecting with clients looking to invest in Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae MBS. The company said it is the first institutional agency mortgage index built on individual security valuations. The index, referred to as MAX, is billed as a “contemporary and comprehensive” benchmark of the agency MBS market. It combines 30-year, 15-year and 20-year MBS in an index that the bank says contains more than 400 aggregates that cover almost 85 percent of the agency market. And because it updates from the sixth business day of the month instead of the 15th, as most other indices do, JPMorgan said the MAX reduces a number of tracking errors. “Agency MBS is...

The Federal Reserve’s effort to normalize its balance sheet later this year would cause no significant falloff in the agency mortgage-backed securities market over the next six to 12 months, according to global investment firm Loomis Sayles. In an analysis, the firm concluded that agency MBS remain attractive for now with modest excess returns for agency MBS versus Treasurys. “We favor a modest overweight agency MBS stance versus Treasurys for the remainder of 2017 and ...

Policymakers should make a number of changes to regulations to entice investors to buy new non-agency mortgage-backed securities, according to officials at Pacific Investment Management Company. PIMCO was a major investor in pre-crisis non-agency MBS. “Unlike the complexities of government-sponsored enterprise reform, a few minor, straightforward changes – some of which can be done through regulation, not legislation – can be made to bring private capital back to the market ...

Bipartisan Flood Bill Introduced in Senate. The Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs will soon consider a bipartisan bill introduced this week that would keep the National Flood Insurance Program funded for six more years and create new risk mitigation procedures for communities to follow.Senate Banking Committee Chairman Mike Crapo, R-ID, and ranking Democrat Sherrod Brown, OH, said the bill would serve as a template for consideration by the whole committee. The Senate bill does not include core provisions in the House version, including the development of a private flood insurance market to complement the NFIP. In addition, the bill does not call for cuts in the reimbursement rate for Write-Your-Own flood-insurance carriers that service NFIP policies. However, amendments are likely, according to Crapo and Brown. Meanwhile, the ...

Wells Fargo’s recent maneuver to hold back funds on vintage non-agency MBS subject to clean-up calls could have broader implications for the market, according to industry analysts. Other trustees appear likely to follow the lead set by Wells, which could limit clean-up calls by servicers. In June, Wells withheld $94.3 million in funds from investors in 20 non-agency MBS that were subject to clean-up calls by New Residential Investment. The deals in question are the subject of a lawsuit involving MBS investors alleging that Wells failed to perform its duties as trustee. Wells disputed the charges and withheld the funds to cover potential litigation costs. Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said...

The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee is moving closer to beginning what is likely to be a long and drawn-out process to gradually and predictably unwind the U.S. central bank’s huge portfolio of agency MBS and debt – the sooner, the better, according to Fed chief Janet Yellen. “The FOMC intends to gradually reduce the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings by decreasing its reinvestment of the principal payments it receives from the securities held in the System Open Market Account,” she said this week in her semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony on monetary policy to members of Congress. “Specifically, such payments will be reinvested...

The average daily trading volume of agency MBS reached $209.9 billion in June, the second highest reading of the year and a sign that liquidity is picking up, according to figures compiled by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association. The increase in trading comes despite the fact that Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae issued a total of $317.7 billion of new MBS in the second quarter, a 6.1 percent decline from the first quarter. For the six-month period, 2017 holds the edge with volume up 3.5 percent. But it hasn’t been...

The proposal to restructure the credit-risk transfer debt-note programs at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to make them more attractive to real estate investment trusts likely won’t have a negative impact on the credit risk and quality of those deals, Morningstar said in a new report. The proposed changes to Fannie’s Connecticut Avenue Securities and Freddie’s Structured Agency Credit Risk programs would characterize them as real estate mortgage investment conduits. This would allow REITs and some overseas investors to participate more broadly in the programs. Currently, the structure of the government-sponsored enterprises’ popular CRT programs doesn’t meet...