The seven-year-old era of zero interest rates finally came to an end this week when the Federal Reserve began what may be the first in a series of small rate hikes, opting for a modest 25 basis point rise in the federal funds rate. However, the U.S. central bank also implied it expects four more quarter-point interest rate increases next year. The median projection among Fed Open Market Committee participants for the federal funds rate rises gradually to nearly 1.50 percent in late 2016 and 2.50 percent in late 2017, Fed chair Janet Yellen said in discussing the central bank’s latest moves. Further, as the factors restraining economic growth continue to fade over time, in their view, the projected median rate rises...

A precedent-setting court case decided in May has disrupted the MBS and ABS markets, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association and the Structured Finance Industry Group. The trade groups filed an amicus brief to the Supreme Court of the United States late last week, calling for the court to hear an appeal of the ruling in Madden v. Midland Funding. In May, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit ruled that federal preemption under the National Bank Act doesn’t apply to nonbanks that purchase loans from banks. The Madden ruling subjects nonbank purchasers of loans originated by banks to state usury laws. If a bank’s preemption from such laws isn’t transferred when a nonbank acquires a loan originated by a bank, the loan can be...

The U.S. residential MBS sector will continue its slow, steady recovery in 2016 amid a host of challenges, showing further improvement in housing fundamentals, credit quality and mortgage performance, according to analysts. The challenges to MBS structured financing boil down to the following: tapering of Federal Reserve investment in MBS, MBS supply and demand, interest rates and prepayment risk. Fitch Ratings notes...

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision issued a revised proposed standardized approach for gauging credit risk, making adjustments suggested by industry participants. Among the revisions was the allowance for certain banks to use external credit ratings as part of determining capital requirements for credit risk. While regulators in various countries appear likely to adopt the proposed use of credit ratings, U.S. banking regulators wouldn’t be able to due to provisions in the Dodd-Frank Act. Anticipating the divergence among regulators, the BCBS noted that banks would classify exposures into three different buckets, provided that certain minimum criteria are met. U.S. banking regulators noted...

The supply of home mortgage debt outstanding increased by 0.5 percent during the third quarter of 2015, following a similar modest gain during the previous period. A total of $9.952 trillion of single-family mortgage debt was outstanding at the end of September, according to a Federal Reserve report released late last week. It represented a second consecutive quarterly increase, something the mortgage servicing market has struggled to accomplish during the long contraction that started back in 2008. Most of the increase came...[Includes one data table]

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac sold $12.58 billion of credit risk through their popular back-end risk-transfer deals during 2015, according to a new Inside MBS & ABS tally of new issuance in the Connecticut Avenue Securities and Structured Agency Credit Risk platforms. While that was up 16.8 percent from the total for 2014, observers continue to call for more diversification in the government-sponsored enterprises’ risk-transfer activities, and greater transparency. The Federal Housing Finance Agency “should require...[Includes one data table]

Separate appeals courts this week vacated legal victories that the federal government achieved in the aftermath of the financial crisis. The cases involve former officials at State Street Bank and Trust and a former MBS trader at Jefferies & Company. In 2014, commissioners of the Securities and Exchange Commission voted 3-2 to reverse a ruling by the SEC’s Chief Administrative Law Judge involving James Hopkins, a former vice president and head of North American product engineering at State Street, and John Flannery, a former CIO at the bank. The ALJ had dismissed...

Standard & Poor’s rated some $84.64 billion of non-mortgage ABS issued in the U.S. during the first nine months of the year, making it the top rating service in the segment, according to a new ranking by Inside MBS & ABS. S&P was well represented in all the major ABS sectors, with its strongest showing in credit card ABS, where it rated 73.4 percent of 2015 issuance based on dollar volume. Fitch Ratings was...[Includes two data tables]

The securitization of non-agency, nonprime residential loans appears to be heating up as 2015 draws to a close, but bond sizes continue to be – expectedly – quite small. Then again, that’s not the point of these deals, lending executives and investment bankers involved in the market, argue. The idea is to set the table by issuing securities backed by loans that fail to meet the qualified-mortgage test in the hope that, down the road, bond sizes will increase. Earlier this month, according to a report by Bloomberg, Lone Star Funds issued...

Industry analysts are generally optimistic that most of the large consumer ABS sectors will probably see a stable, positive year in 2016. However, they’re not very gung-ho about what kind of a year the government-backed student loan space is going to have. Analysts at Wells Fargo Securities think that consumer ABS should offer good relative value next year, based on solid credit fundamentals and robust structural protections. “We expect spreads to tighten in 2016 as the primary market recovers and the yield curve flattens along with Federal Reserve tightening,” they said in a recent outlook. “Spreads are likely to stay volatile and event-driven.” Further, “Weak demand and poor liquidity have been...