The prospects for consumer ABS in 2016 are a bit mixed. Auto ABS – especially subprime – appear susceptible to the Federal Reserve’s promised raising of interest rates this year and beyond, but credit card ABS are strong and performing well. “Rising interest rates could pressure U.S. auto ABS transactions, especially first on subprime deals,” analysts at Fitch Ratings said in a recent client note. While they expect last month’s initial rate increase by the Fed to have only a marginal near-term impact on borrowers, they said the plan to raise rates gradually over four years could increase the monthly debt burden on auto loan borrowers. “Although the rate increases are expected to affect the entire market, Fitch believes...

New issuance of single-family mortgage-backed securities by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac fell sharply in the fourth quarter of 2015 despite a December rebound in monthly volume, according to a new Inside Mortgage Finance analysis and ranking. The two government-sponsored enterprises issued $179.01 billion of single-family MBS during the final three months of 2015, a 19.9 percent drop from the third quarter. It was the weakest level of new business for the GSEs since the second quarter of 2014. A faltering purchase-mortgage market was...[Includes three data tables]

Although the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau recently issued a “clarifying” letter on errors tied to the so-called TRID integrated disclosure rule, deep concerns remain among originators that fund non-agency product for sale into the secondary market. Moreover, according to interviews conducted by Inside Mortgage Finance over the past week, some nonbank lenders are seeing noticeable increases in origination costs because loans are taking longer to close and therefore remain on warehouse lines for an extended period of time. Because nonbanks fund almost all of their production using warehouse credit, the implication boils down...

The government-sponsored enterprises’ risk-sharing transactions more adequately address incentive problems than non-agency mortgage-backed securities, according to a recent report by the Office of Financial Research. The OFR said back-end risk-sharing transactions from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac “indicate how private housing finance remains crippled.” The OFR is an independent office within the U.S. Treasury Department, focusing on financial stability issues. The GSEs sold ...

Investors should see a higher share of VA collateral in Ginnie Mae mortgage-backed securities pools due to increasing VA loan originations, according to Deutsche Bank analysts. Given their rising share of VA collateral, new Ginnie pools are likely to have worse convexity than most of those originated in 2015, analysts said. “VA loans tend to prepay faster than FHA loans when in the money as VA loans have larger loan sizes, higher FICO scores and a more efficient streamline refi program that requires a minimum three months seasoning,” they observed. In addition, analysts expect the population of younger veterans to surge approximately 36 percent over the next five years. “[As such], there will be a healthy supply of new VA originations eligible for pooling,” they said. As a result, the share of FHA relative to VA collateral in new Ginnie II pools will likely decrease, they said. Such a trend has manifested itself slowly as ...

FHA lenders funded $12.3 billion in new Home Equity Conversion Mortgage loans during the first nine months of 2015, up a hefty 22.2 percent from the same period in the prior year, according to Inside FHA/VA Lending’s analysis of agency data. Likewise, HECM endorsements increased 17.3 percent to $4.5 billion in the third quarter from $3.9 billion in the prior quarter. This was the highest HECM endorsements have been since the second quarter of 2013, when they totaled $4.1 billion. Purchase loans accounted for 85.8 percent of all HECM originations over the nine-month period. The majority of borrowers favored adjustable-rate HECMs over fixed-rate HECMs, which accounted for only 14.8 percent of HECM transactions. In addition, the initial principal amount at loan originations totaled $7.3 billion, up from $4.6 billion midway through 2015. The volume increase is attributable to program changes implemented ... [1 chart]

A total of $13.6 billion of rural home loans backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture were securitized during the first nine months of 2015, according to an Inside FHA/VA Lending analysis of agency data.An estimated $5.1 billion of USDA home loans were delivered into Ginnie Mae pools in the third quarter, up 22.8 percent from the prior quarter. In contrast, the nine-month securitization volume fell 4.4 percent from the same period of the prior year. Nine of the top 10 USDA loan securitizers reported quarter-over-quarter increases. Top-ranked Chase Home Finance maintained its lead over other USDA loan securitizers with $4.2 billion in loans securitized during the nine-month period, down 4.8 percent from the previous year and up 32.8 percent on a quarterly basis. Chase’s nine-month USDA volume translated into a 31.0 percent market share. Second-place Wells Fargo funneled $1.7 billion in USDA loans into ... [ chart ]

The supply of single-family MBS outstanding grew again in the third quarter of 2015, according to a new Inside MBS & ABS analysis. At the end of September, $6.381 trillion of single-family MBS were outstanding, a 0.7 percent increase from the second quarter. The market has moved in fits and starts since the end of 2009, but the September mark was the highest since the third quarter of 2013. The supply of non-agency MBS in the market has moved...[Includes two data tables]

Greenleaf Income Trust this week priced a $135 million non-agency, nonprime MBS, the largest such offering since the housing bust. It marks the second nonprime MBS sold in the past week, and the fourth deal of the year – all of them sold as private placements with no ratings. Mike Fierman, managing partner and CEO of Angel Oak Companies, which is affiliated with Greenleaf, told Inside MBS & ABS he’s pleased with the outcome of the security. “We had broad investor participation and the transaction was oversubscribed.” Fierman said...

The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association advised Capitol Hill that the successful government-sponsored enterprise credit risk-sharing programs could be improved to increase liquidity and investor interest. In a letter to Sen. Richard Shelby, R-AL, chairman of the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, the Wall Street group said, “Up-front risk-sharing could make housing finance more efficient and sustainable by allowing the GSEs to achieve day-one risk transfers without having to warehouse credit risk until it can be distributed in a back-end credit transfer transaction.” It added...