There are many unpredictable variables and economic factors outside the control of the Federal Reserve, which makes it hard to project the impact of winding down the U.S. central bank’s historic investment in agency MBS. But economic experts at Fannie Mae are cautiously expressed anticipating greater volatility, an inevitable financial shock and potential changes in the Fed’s strategy as markets evolve.

Correspondent-based lending operations are accounting for a growing share of the FHA and VA home loans pooled in Ginnie Mae mortgage-backed securities, according to a new analysis and ranking by Inside FHA/VA Lending. In fact, correspondent originations are the only production channel to see year-over-year growth in FHA and VA business through the first nine months of 2017. Retail and wholesale-broker production is down for both FHA and VA loans. Correspondent programs are most dominant in the FHA market, perhaps reflecting a preference among large producers to have recourse to a primary-market lender if the government later finds defects in how the loan was originated. Correspondents accounted for 48.7 percent of FHA loans pooled in Ginnie MBS during the first nine months of the year, up from 43.1 percent in all of 2016. Volume was up 1.7 percent from the ... [Charts]

A new net tangible benefit test for ensuring that a VA borrower benefits from a refinancing appears to be the obvious solution to the VA’s churning problem, according to analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML). Modeled after the FHA net tangible benefit test, the test seems to be a “foregone conclusion” for VA, analysts said. A Ginnie Mae/VA task force is currently working to resolve the problem, which is causing rapid prepayments in Ginnie mortgage-backed securities and raising serious doubts as to whether aggressive refinancing truly benefits veterans and servicemembers. “There is a critical need to ensure that veteran borrowers are not harmed by repeated refinancings through VA’s Interest Rate Reduction Refinance Loan program,” said Mortgage Bankers Association President/CEO David Stevens during a recent appearance before the House Financial Services Committee. IRRRLs, also referred to ...

The news at the Federal Reserve this week can best be summarized by the term “status quo.” The U.S. central bank held interest rates unchanged, its plan to gradually unwind its massive portfolio continues unchanged, and President Trump nominated Fed governor Jerome Powell to succeed Janet Yellen, likely ensuring more of the same when it comes to the future of both interest rates and the balance sheet. When it came to rates, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee ...

Tesla Energy is preparing to issue a $344.0 million ABS backed by proceeds from solar-power generating systems on residential properties. The planned TES 2017-1, LLC, Series 2017-1 received an A- rating from Kroll Bond Rating Agency last week. The transaction is secured by proceeds on a portfolio of 33,499 leases and power-purchase agreements associated with solar photovoltaic systems. The leases and PPAs were originated by SolarCity, which does business under ...

The Department of Justice has announced a non-prosecution deal with the Royal Bank of Scotland, which includes a $44 million settlement, to resolve a criminal probe of the bank’s activities in non-agency MBS and collateralized loan obligations. The probe accused the bank of defrauding more than 30 customers that purchased residential and commercial MBS as well as ABS over a five-year period beginning in 2008. The group that handled the sales of these securities for RBS was ...

Nearly half of the loans securitized by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae during the third quarter came from lenders’ retail platforms, a new Inside Mortgage Trends analysis shows. Correspondents generated 38.8 percent of the market and posted the highest purchase-mortgage concentration, 77.8 percent. Mortgage brokers were involved in 11.6 percent of agency business, with a relatively high 35.9 percent refinance distribution ... [Includes one data chart]

The residential mortgage securitization industry could do better with a new due diligence working group that would help establish consensus and standards for third-party reviews (TPR), according to participants in a recent TPR roundtable hosted by Fitch Ratings. Fitch’s Residential MBS Group and TPR firms generally agreed on the need to set uniform standards for testing, grading and reporting compliance with federal and state regulatory requirements. There was consensus that the ...

Citadel Servicing Corp. continues to ready its first nonprime mortgage-backed security and received risk assessments from Morningstar Credit Ratings last week. The rating service evaluated Citadel as a lender and servicer, assigning it level-three rankings on a scale of one to four, with four being the worst. The assessment, along with a similar assessment by Fitch Ratings earlier this year, show that Citadel is taking steps toward issuing rated nonprime MBS. Sources close to ...

Providers of third-party due diligence services for non-agency mortgages are considering standardizing portions of the review and reporting process, according to Fitch Ratings. The rating service hosted a roundtable with a number of due diligence firms this month and provided some details on the meeting last week. “Participants agreed that increased focus on consensus where appropriate benefits the market as it mitigates pressures that third-party review firms may be ...