The delinquency rate on commercial MBS in November slipped modestly thanks to continued COVID-related relief. The recovery ahead will be slow, particularly for the lodging and retail sectors.
Performance on non-agency MBS has improved after the spike in late payments seen in the spring. However, borrowers who are still delinquent could prompt losses for investors.
The FHFA’s capital requirements include relatively harsh treatment of credit-risk transfer transactions from Fannie and Freddie but that view could change under the Biden administration.