Analysts expect the U.S. economic recovery to continue on a slow, weak path into 2013 with the potential for a new recession that could weaken the residential MBS market. At Standard & Poor’s, analysts predict a “slow and uneven” economic recovery with a 15 percent to 20 percent chance of another recession that would be less severe than the 2008-2009 financial crisis but potent enough to sap the MBS market. S&P assumes a reversal in home prices and unemployment rising to near 9 percent in 2013, which could hamper borrower capacity to make their mortgage payments. Overall, S&P’s outlook for the single-family MBS market is...

Two separate white papers from industry trade groups on reform of the government-sponsored enterprises call for a strong government role to provide stability and liquidity in multifamily mortgage finance. The Mortgage Bankers Association called for a system of private capital finance for multifamily housing, with a focus primarily on securitization and the federal government serving as a catastrophic insurer. The program would be funded through risk-based premiums paid by the entities that securitize the loans, according to Brian Stoffers, president of CBRE Debt and Equity Finance. “We recognize...

Title VII of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act will carry two key “unintended consequences” for the structured finance industry should it be implemented in its current form, a trade group representative warned lawmakers this week. Testifying before the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets and Government-Sponsored Enterprises, American Securitization Forum Executive Director Tom Deutsch said that Title VII’s treatment of commodity pools and margin requirements triggers two potential “compliance challenges” for some parties in securitization transactions that may hurt all of the beneficiaries of the deal. “We would not have expected...

The Division of Swap Dealer and Intermediary Oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has issued an interpretation clarifying commodity pool treatment for certain securitizations and a no-action letter providing additional relief for certain legacy securitization entities. Specifically, the letter explains when exclusion from commodity pool regulation for certain securitization vehicles that do not meet any of the criteria set forth in an October 2012 no-action letter is appropriate. It also provides relief for certain securitization vehicles formed before Oct. 12, 2012. In the October no-action letter, the CFTC spelled out...

Mortgage securitization rates remained at record levels through the third quarter of 2012, with 86.3 percent of primary market originations being financed as MBS, according to a new analysis by Inside MBS & ABS. A total of $1.15 trillion of MBS backed by recently originated loans were issued through the first nine months of the year, soaking up most of the $1.33 trillion in new production during that period. The market is on track to top the record 84.4 percent securitization rate set for the full year back in 2009, after two years in which the rate had drifted somewhat lower. During the third quarter, the securitization rate surged...[Includes one data chart]

The dismissal of a lawsuit from non-agency MBS investors against the rating services was confirmed last week, including a ruling that ratings from Fitch Ratings, Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s were not negligent misrepresentations. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit confirmed the September 2011 dismissal of a lawsuit brought by investors led by the Ohio Police & Fire Pension Fund. The lawsuit related to 308 AAA-rated non-agency MBS issued between 2005 and 2008, with the investors taking losses of $457 million from the securities. The investors claimed...

The highly anticipated ability-to-repay rule from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is expected to perpetuate the status quo in the MBS market, with nearly all the action taking place at Ginnie Mae and the government-sponsored enterprises, according to speakers at a panel discussion hosted by the American Securitization Forum this week. The rule, which will provide legal protection for lenders that originate home loans meeting its “qualified mortgage” definition, will also likely continue the stream of plain vanilla mortgages that currently populate agency MBS. Edward Mills, a research analyst and senior vice president at FBR Capital Markets, suggested...

The memorandum of understanding (MOU) announced recently between the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the Department of Justice does not represent a major policy shift but could lead to more referrals of fair lending cases to the DOJ, according to industry lawyers. Compliance attorneys said information-sharing between the two agencies will likely trigger new fair lending inquiries into origination and servicing practices. In addition, both agencies subscribe to the disparate impact theory and are expected to continue to push it, attorneys noted. The new MOU supplements...

The mortgage industry is fearful of expanded liability after the Consumer Financial Protection Agency reportedly asked financial institutions with wholesale mortgage operations to monitor and ensure correspondents’ compliance with consumer protection laws and regulations. Lenders are said to be anxious about being held liable for purchased defective mortgages originated by unaffiliated third parties, and they are wary about new entrants that are trying to fill the void left by the traditional, larger players when they exited the wholesale broker/correspondent market. The CFPB has not issued...

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac this month completed implementation of the latest round of guaranty fee hikes, this one mandated by their regulator as a move to reduce the footprint of the government-sponsored enterprises and draw more private capital into the mortgage market. Experts say the 10 basis point fee hike will have a slight positive impact in the near term, but future moves in the same direction could help close the gap between agency and non-agency mortgage-backed securities. The Federal Housing Finance Agency ordered the GSEs to raise g-fees by 10 bps for cash deliveries starting in November, and for MBS transactions beginning in December. At the time, the FHFA said...