Production of first-lien residential mortgages increased by 17.3% during the fourth quarter of 2025. Refinances soared while purchase-mortgage activity declined as part of a seasonal trend. (Includes two data tables.)

In mid-December, MBA was projecting interest rates would hold at 6.4% throughout 2026. However, MBA now anticipates the average rate will be 6.1% in the first quarter and hold at that level through the year.

The trade group representing credit reporting agencies said MBA’s proposal to move to a single-bureau report is more about lowering costs for lenders than saving money for consumers.