“The risk,” said Mario Ichaso, a trading desk strategist at Wells Fargo, “is that stagflation becomes the common, more dominating view, and mortgage spreads could widen in that situation.”
Since the Iran war started, interest rates have returned to where they were when President Trump directed the GSEs to purchase $200 billion in MBS and most analysts say GSE reform is now off the table.
“The condo insurance requirements will reduce costs for existing homeowners and will make tens of thousands of additional units eligible for lower cost GSE financing,” said Bob Broeksmit, president and CEO of the MBA.
Since the U.S. initiated strikes on Iran, mortgage rates and MBS spreads have given up all the ground they gained from the Trump administration’s directive for the GSEs to purchase $200 billion in agency MBS.
The three major consumer reporting agencies are using discounted pricing and other strategies to drive adoption of VantageScore 4.0 among mortgage lenders. The score is the main competitor to FICO.
Three of the top-five GSE issuers posted declines in volume last month. Meanwhile, Fannie’s share of total residential MBS issuance fell to a decade-plus low of 24.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025. (Includes two data tables.)