Analysts forecast uncertainty for the agency MBS market going into 2014 as the policy landscape reshapes itself and investors cautiously adapt to the shape of things to come. Look for 2014 to be a “year of transition” amid a slowly rising range of U.S. Treasury yields, a slowly recovering economy, and a Federal Reserve that transitions away from quantitative easing toward forward guidance, according to RBS analysts. RBS noted...

The supply of outstanding residential MBS grew by 0.3 percent during the third quarter, hitting $6.383 trillion, according to a new Inside MBS & ABS analysis. The Federal Reserve gobbled up most of the increase. Ginnie Mae remained the fastest-growing MBS product. Its $1.377 trillion in outstanding single-family MBS was up 2.6 percent from the second quarter, and it expanded by 8.1 percent from September 30, 2012. Fannie Mae posted a more modest 0.8 percent increase in single-family MBS outstanding, while the Freddie Mac supply shrank slightly. The non-agency MBS market continued...[Includes two data charts]

Home-equity lending has quietly begun to rebound in 2013 as firmer house prices give homeowners more to borrow against and rising mortgage rates diminish the appeal of refinancing. According to revised Inside Mortgage Finance estimates, a total of $43.5 billion of home-equity lines of credit and closed-end second mortgages were originated during the first nine months of this year. That was up 30.8 percent from the same period in 2012 and it included a hefty 13.3 percent increase from the second to the third quarter of this year. The increase in HEL production so far hasn’t turned...[Includes three data charts]

The U.S. Treasury’s new Federal Insurance Office released a long-awaited report last week that calls for the federal oversight of mortgage insurers, an industry now overseen directly by state insurance regulators and indirectly by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Finance Agency. “Federal standards and oversight for mortgage insurers should be developed and implemented,” said the report. The private mortgage insurance sector is interconnected...

After ending fiscal year 2012 at a negative $16.3 billion, the FHA’s mutual mortgage insurance fund is close to being in the black, according to an independent actuarial report released late last week. The FHA noted that it has shifted its focus from shoring up the MMIF to reducing lenders’ underwriting overlays and targeting poorly performing servicers. The net worth of the MMIF at the end of fiscal year 2013 was negative $1.3 billion, according to the report, due to pricing and policy changes by the Department of Housing and Urban Development along with improvements to the economy. The capital reserve ratio for the MMIF also improved from negative 1.44 percent at the end of fiscal 2012 to negative 0.11 percent at the end of fiscal 2013. HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan noted...

Real estate investment trusts that focus on investing in MBS held a combined $306.3 billion of mortgage securities in portfolio at the end of the third quarter, according to a new Inside MBS & ABS analysis. That total was down 6.4 percent from the end of June, as the industry has lost nearly all of the huge volume of MBS that were acquired in early 2012. At the end of 2011, REITs held $297.5 billion of MBS and over the next six months grew their combined portfolio by $76.7 billion, reaching a record $375.2 billion at the midway point in 2012. It’s been...[Includes one data chart]

The Department of Housing and Urban Development has released a final rule defining a “qualified mortgage” that is insured by the FHA. The final rule will be effective on Jan. 10, 2014. The HUD rule builds off the QM/Ability-to-Repay rule, which the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau finalized earlier this year. The Dodd-Frank Act requires HUD to propose a QM definition that is aligned with the ability-to-repay criteria set out in the Truth in Lending Act and with the agency’s mission to ...

In the third quarter of 2013, the level of home-mortgage debt outstanding grew for the first time since early 2008 as the housing industry continued to climb out of the crater. The Federal Reserve this week announced there was $9.864 trillion of single-family mortgages outstanding at the end of September, a tiny 0.1 percent increase from the previous quarter. But after four and half years of decline, the gain seemed monumental. The central bank noted that all the increase was in first mortgages, while the supply of home-equity loans outstanding continued to shrink. Servicing attached to Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac programs continued...[Includes one data chart]

House Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling does not have the votes needed to pass the Protecting American Taxpayers and Homeowners Act in the House and, unless he is willing to be flexible on certain key issues, the package may not reach the House floor at all in this Congress, according to industry lobbyists. Talk that Hensarling, R-TX, may make another push to get the PATH Act to the House floor surfaced this week following an opinion piece he published in the Nov. 27 issue of the Washington Times. In that op-ed, the chairman focused on the bill’s FHA reform component. Hensarling underscored...

The CFPB has gone ahead and issued the last big piece to the mortgage finance puzzle it was mandated to manufacture by the Dodd-Frank Act, the integrated mortgage-disclosure rule under the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act and the Truth in Lending Act and related forms. The good news for the mortgage finance industry – apart from the 20-month implementation period – is that the new rule and forms, part of the bureau’s “know before you owe” initiative, are not nearly as “transformational” towards the fundamental nature of the...