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Inside Mortgage Trends
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Fairholme Staying the Course on its Fannie, Freddie Investment

July 28, 2017
In a recent conference call, Fairholme Capital Management founder and Chief Investment Officer Bruce Berkowitz stood his ground regarding the firm’s investment in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac junior preferred shares, believing that the bet will pay off in time. He made it clear that Fairholme, at this time, has no plans to sell its stake, which the firm has valued at roughly $115.7 million. But Berkowitz also made it clear he sees little chance of GSE reform passing any time soon, and he anticipates that Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Mel Watt will not permit the Fannie/Freddie capital position to fall to zero in early 2018.
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Mortgage Banking Profits Up for Banks in 2Q17

July 28, 2017
The banking industry reported a widespread increase in net income from mortgage-banking activities during the second quarter of 2017, according to an exclusive Inside Mortgage Trends analysis of earnings reports from publicly traded companies. All 25 companies in the roundup reported positive mortgage-banking results for the most recent quarter, which saw increased production volume and stable mortgage interest rates. As a group, they earned $2.673 billion from ... [Includes one data chart]
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Fannie Expects More Business From DTI Shift

July 28, 2017
Fannie Mae says it expects “a slight increase” in the share of its single-family business that has higher debt-to-income ratios as a result of a tweak to the company’s Desktop Underwriter system. The government-sponsored enterprise generally limits DTI ratios to 45 percent. Under the previous version of DU, applications with debt ratios up to 50 percent could be approved if there were compensating factors, such as a loan-to-value ratio below 80 percent or at least 12 months of ...
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Smaller Banks Posting Outsized Loan Growth

July 28, 2017
Smaller banks are outpacing bigger institutions in terms of on-balance sheet growth in mortgage originations, according to an analysis by an economist at the Federal Reserve. The trend appears to be driven by lingering issues associated with the financial crisis along with regulations that increased capital requirements for large banks. Cindy Vojtech, a senior economist at the Fed, measured the volume of mortgages and other loan types being held in portfolio by 372 banks, including ...
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Demand for Mortgage Refi Credit Turns Sluggish

July 28, 2017
Consumer demand for credit to refinance appears to be in decline, and some of that may be due to borrowers sensing they cannot qualify, findings from the latest survey of consumer expectations by the New York Federal Reserve Bank suggest. The survey was based on data from the mid-year 2016 mark through June of 2017, and it was benchmarked to a previous survey conducted in February. When it comes to consumer behavior, the data show that demand for credit ...
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Housing Affordable, Not Necessarily Attainable

July 28, 2017
Low interest rates on mortgages continue to make home purchases attractive but many potential borrowers have been prevented from buying a home. Economists at Freddie Mac said a number of factors are making home purchases look unaffordable to potential buyers, even though affordability is at near-record levels. The Housing Affordability Index developed by the National Association of Realtors tracks the ratio of median family income required to qualify for a conventional mortgage ...
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Strategist Expects Fed Reinvestment to Continue

July 28, 2017
The Federal Reserve’s effort to normalize its balance sheet later this year would cause no significant falloff in the agency mortgage-backed securities market over the next six to 12 months, according to global investment firm Loomis Sayles. In an analysis, the firm concluded that agency MBS remain attractive for now with modest excess returns for agency MBS versus Treasurys. “We favor a modest overweight agency MBS stance versus Treasurys for the remainder of 2017 and ...
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Some Loan Mods Have No Effect on Default

July 28, 2017
Mortgage principal reductions that left short-term payments unchanged had no effect on default or consumption for underwater borrowers, according to a new study from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing. Authors Peter Ganong and Pascal Noel believe the findings are significant in the design of loan modification programs – a key question for policymakers in their attempt to help struggling borrowers remain in their homes. The policy debate hinged on the effect of long-term debt ...
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Short Takes: Newfi Lending Booms/Home Prices Keep Rising/Homeowners Who Sell See Gains

July 27, 2017
Thomas Ressler
Newfi Lending Booms/Home Prices Keep Rising/Homeowners Who Sell See Gains
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Small Banks and Community Lenders Support Reform Without Creating Numerous Guarantors

July 27, 2017
Getting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac out of limbo should not result in the creation of multiple guarantors, according to community lenders testifying at a housing-finance reform hearing in the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee last week. “The worst outcome in … reform would be to allow a small number of mega-firms to assume the size and scale of Fannie and Freddie under the pretense of creating a private sector solution strong enough to assure the markets in all economic conditions,” said Jack Hopkins, president and CEO of CorTrust Bank, on behalf of the Independent Community Bankers Association. Any plan that promotes consolidation is...
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