Originations held in bank portfolios couldn't outpace portfolio runoff, according to a new ranking and analysis by Inside Nonconforming Markets. The dollar volume of first liens in bank and thrift portfolios declined by 0.6 percent in the third quarter of 2013 compared with the previous quarter. Total residential mortgages outstanding increased by a scant 0.1 percent during that time, the first quarterly increase in total mortgages outstanding since early 2008. While banks ... [Includes one data chart]

Non-agency mortgage originations are expected to remain relatively strong in 2014, led by bank jumbo production and an expected resumption of issuance of non-agency mortgage-backed securities. Through three quarters in 2013, an estimated 22.4 percent of the $1.59 trillion in mortgages originated (including second liens) had non-agency execution, according to affiliated publication Inside MBS & ABS, with most of the non-agency activity concentrated in bank portfolios. Total mortgage originations ...

The Federal Reserve’s asset purchases will continue to dominate execution of jumbo mortgage-backed security issuance until the significant purchases of agency MBS are stopped, according to analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The tapering of the Fed’s quantitative easing beginning this month will do little to end the advantages agency MBS have over new jumbo MBS. “We believe that the Fed’s ‘non-economic’ bid for agency MBS contributes to the distorted price advantage for agency MBS ...

The qualified mortgage requirements set to be implemented next week present jumbo lenders with opportunities as well as compliance challenges, according to industry participants. “We are particularly bullish about the jumbo mortgage business because we believe that multiple regulatory and competitive factors provide strong tailwinds to our business,” Greg Garrabrants, president and CEO of BofI Holdings, said during a recent investor presentation. He said the debt-to-income ratio requirements ...

Fitch Ratings recently released new loan-loss model criteria for jumbo mortgage-backed securities. The rating service said the new loss criteria could result in higher credit enhancement requirements for new jumbo MBS. The new criteria assign a penalty to loans sourced through non-retail channels. The rating service will now include a borrower’s liquid reserves as a variable in its loss modeling. Fitch will apply a 25 percent haircut to the reported reserve amount based on the volatility ... [Includes five briefs]

The Department of Housing and Urban Development has delayed the implementation of a new requirement to assess the financial condition of borrowers seeking a Home Equity Conversion Mortgage loan, which was to take effect on Jan. 13. HUD’s decision to delay responds to an industry concern that the initial effective date does not give lenders sufficient time to customize appropriate software, hire and train new underwriters and complete other critical implementation tasks. It would take at least three months to do all these things, lenders said.

While the jumbo MBS market has all but ground to a halt in recent months, industry analysts expect that issuance will resume at some point early next year, but the 2014 forecast is dicey. Some $12.23 billion in jumbo MBS was issued through three quarters in 2013. The market hasn’t seen much activity in the final months of the year due to a lack of demand from investors and continued appetite from bank portfolios. A number of industry analysts expect...

Non-agency MBS investors showed strong appetite for $5.1 billion in vintage securities that were auctioned last week as part of the Dutch government’s efforts to unwind a bailout of ING. Industry analysts said the successful sale shows that demand for high-yielding, low-priced bonds remains strong. The MBS sold by the Dutch State Treasury Agency were largely backed by option adjustable-rate mortgages, according to Interactive Data, a firm that tracks fixed-income products. ING and the DSTA didn’t provide pricing information on the sale. According to talk among traders before the auction, Interactive Data said...

The rating services will put an emphasis on documentation of compliance with requirements for qualified mortgages and new ability-to-repay provisions. Credit-enhancement requirements appear as though they will be unchanged for the majority of jumbo MBS issued beginning in 2014, though issuers might have to make adjustments to prove to the rating services that they are compliant with new requirements from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. “Since most of what is being originated today already meets the standards of the rules, DBRS believes that the real challenge lies in unequivocally demonstrating QM and ATR compliance to the market and establishing confidence in the soundness of the systems and procedures that will be used to determine and ensure compliance,” DBRS said. The rating service recently released...

Higher guaranty fees at the government-sponsored enterprises and lower loan limits for FHA mortgages in 2014 aren’t expected to prompt an increase in the issuance of non-agency mortgage-backed securities because the economics for securitization remain unattractive. Industry analysts are also concerned that the Senate’s confirmation of Rep. Mel Watt, D-NC, as director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency could slow efforts to shift business from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the non-agency market. The FHFA announced ...