Investors in vintage non-agency MBS have seen strong returns in recent months, particularly in August. Industry analysts suggest that returns are likely to remain elevated as there are few remaining risks for non-agency MBS and supply is limited. “Despite increased profit taking on this year’s impressive performance, bonds continue to trade well,” according to analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “While demand for non-agency bonds will likely grow as home prices recover, it will not be met with more new supply as is seen in the broader high-yield bond universe. This is a very strong backdrop for further price appreciation.” From the beginning of June through the end of September, pricing on the ABX index that tracks subprime MBS has...

Interest shortfalls on non-agency MBS have increased significantly in the past five months, according to research by Morningstar Credit Ratings. The servicing-related issue causes investors to absorb unpredictable losses and could result in downgrades of non-agency MBS. A sample of 2,858 non-agency MBS deals (21,727 tranches) examined by Morningstar in May and again in August showed a 38.0 percent increase in the number of deals with interest shortfalls. Some 18.6 percent of non-agency MBS deals examined by Morningstar for the August remittance period experienced a shortfall in at least one tranche. Shortfalls increased overall even though 21.8 percent of the shortfalls seen in March had...

In an effort related to the national mortgage servicing settlement, Bank of America announced last week that it has pre-qualified 150,000 borrowers to receive full extinguishments of their second-lien mortgages. Banks have been slow to modify second liens because their performance remains relatively strong even as borrowers struggle with first liens and negative equity. BofA said the full balance of second liens owned and serviced by the bank will be forgiven and the bank’s lien on the corresponding property ...

First-lien mortgages held in bank and thrift portfolios increased by 4.1 percent at the end of the second quarter of 2012 compared with the same period in 2011, according to an Inside Nonconforming Markets analysis of bank call report data. The strong increase comes as banks actively sell poorly performing legacy mortgages and suggests that lenders have increased their non-agency portfolio originations. Of the 21 banks and thrifts with at least $10.0 billion in first-lien holdings as of the ... [Includes one data chart]

Special servicers are set to receive more than $300.0 billion in distressed agency mortgages, according to industry analysts. The projections come after positive reviews of Fannie Mae’s controversial purchase and transfer of $73.0 billion in mortgage servicing rights from Bank of America in 2011. The Federal Housing Finance Agency and the FHFA Office of Inspector General each determined that Fannie paid a premium for BofA’s mortgage servicing rights, but significant savings will be recognized due ...

Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley last week received notices from non-agency mortgage-backed security investors represented by the law firm of Gibbs & Bruns, which helped negotiate the pending $8.5 billion non-agency MBS settlement with Bank of America. Industry analysts suggest that the notices of non-performance could prompt settlements from Wells and Morgan Stanley, though the circumstances differ from the BofA case. The notices identify covenants in pooling and servicing agreements that the servicers ...

Lenders warn that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s proposed changes to stringent rules for “high-cost” mortgages will dramatically restrict credit availability for borrowers. Consumer advocates counter that the CFPB’s proposal to expand coverage of the Home Ownership and Equity Protection Act is appropriate and they are concerned with potential evasion of the pending rule. “The high-cost proposal would inevitably result in the further tightening of credit, even for creditworthy applicants,” ...

The market share for higher priced mortgages doubled in 2011 compared with the previous year, according to an Inside Nonconforming Markets analysis of Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data released last week. However, the market share for the proxy for subprime mortgages used by federal regulators remained tiny at 1.2 percent of the dollar volume of originations reported in 2011. Some $12.38 billion in higher priced mortgages were sold in 2011, up ... [Includes one data chart]

Thomas Hoenig, a director at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., last week called for changes to impending Basel III capital standards. Industry analysts have warned that the rules will discourage origination of nontraditional mortgages. “In private discussions I find a good deal of uneasiness about Basel III’s ability to be more effective than previous Basel efforts; however, there is a sense that we cannot go back,” Hoenig said in a speech. “I suggest that we not only can go back, we must.” ...

The major servicers handling non-agency mortgages under the Home Affordable Modification Program have made significant improvements, according to new assessments released by the Treasury Department. None of the nine largest non-agency HAMP servicers were in danger of having incentive payments withheld as of the end of the second quarter of 2012. “Servicers continue to focus attention on areas identified in previous program reviews and, as a result, are demonstrating considerable improvement in ...