The delinquency rate on subprime mortgages at the end of 2011 hit levels not seen since 2008, but analysts warn that subprime performance could worsen as borrowers are unable to refinance and negative equity increases. The seasonally adjusted delinquency rate for subprime mortgages fell to 20.8 percent at the end of 2011, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The rate has declined in each of the past seven quarters from a peak of 27.2 percent in the first quarter of 2010. However, a number of factors suggest that delinquency rates on non-agency mortgages will increase ...

Non-agency market participants and stock investors appear to be optimistic about the prospects for real estate investment trusts. REITs are positioned to absorb a portion of the agency share of mortgage origination activity, and investor interest in REIT stocks has increased recently. “REITs should definitely take a big part of the agency footprint,” said Michael Commaroto, president and CEO of Apollo Residential Mortgage, a hybrid REIT. Such REITs invest in both agency MBS and non-agency MBS, with agency MBS generally accounting for most of the investing portfolio ...

After making a splash with plans to issue a non-agency mortgage-backed security in 2011, officials at Two Harbors Investment have backed away from a potential new issuance, instead focusing on investing in vintage non-agency MBS. “We don’t want to do a securitization simply to do a securitization,” said Tom Siering, president and CEO of Two Harbors. “It simply must be good for shareholders.” During an investor presentation last week, Siering said returns on investments in non-agency MBS in recent months have been much greater than the returns the real estate investment trust would see from issuing its own non-agency MBS ...

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust is gradually ramping up its non-agency jumbo correspondent activity, with plans to expand even further in the coming years. “As the markets develop, one area that will become an increasing focus for PennyMac is non-agency jumbo loans,” said Stanford Kurland, chairman and CEO of the real estate investment trust. PennyMac had $15.0 million in jumbo correspondent originations in the fourth quarter of 2011, up slightly from $13.0 million the previous quarter and $7.0 million in the second quarter of 2011 ...

The $25.0 billion servicing settlement is just the latest step toward standardized servicing regulation, according to industry analysts. Many non-agency servicers have taken major steps to prepare for an overhaul of servicing regulation, though increased costs are a concern. “It appears that non-agency MBS servicers have already made significant operational changes in an effort to address process deficiencies identified in this settlement and by regulators,” Fitch Ratings said. As with federal consent orders several servicers agreed to last year ...

American Home Mortgage Servicing and Carrington Capital Management agreed last week to settle a lawsuit regarding alleged improper servicing by American Home on $128.1 million in non-agency mortgage-backed securities owned by Carrington. The lawsuit was filed in 2009 by Carrington, which claimed American Home had conducted “fire sales” of delinquent properties in the securities in an effort to repay debt. At the time, American Home denied the charges. The terms of the settlement were not released. [Includes two briefs]

A new report from Fitch Ratings finds that risk appetite is returning to the U.S. triparty repo market, thanks in part to deeply discounted collateral, much of which is in the form of Alt A and subprime residential MBS and collateralized debt obligations. Fitch’s study of the market is based on repo transaction information drawn from a sample of the 10 largest U.S. prime money market funds’ financial statements. Fitch’s sample encompasses about $90 billion in repo transactions as of the end of August 2011, which represents slightly more than 5 percent of the $1.6 trillion U.S. triparty repo market...

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York ended a week of speculation in the non-agency MBS market with the sale, through competitive bidding, of $6.2 billion of MBS linked to the taxpayer bail-out of mega-insurer AIG. The winning bid came from Goldman Sachs, one of five firms the Fed invited to submit bids on the multibillion-dollar Maiden Lane II (ML II) portfolio of subprime MBS held by the agency. The other bidders included the securities arms of Morgan Stanley, Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays and Credit Suisse. This week’s transaction followed a $7.0 billion MBS sale on Jan. 19 to Credit Suisse from the same...

Federal and state enforcement agencies late last week launched a broad new initiative to investigate and develop litigation on fraud and misconduct in the non-agency MBS market, issuing civil subpoenas to 11 financial companies. The RMBS Working Group is being co-chaired by five officials: two assistant attorneys general in the Justice Department, the head of enforcement at the Securities and Exchange Commission and state attorneys general from New York and Colorado. Some 55 DOJ officials are participating, including 15 attorneys and 10 Federal Bureau of Investigation agents, with 30 more attorneys...

Issuance of new non-agency mortgage-backed securities will resume when the financing structure is economical, according to attendees at the American Securitization Forum’s ASF 2012 conference last week in Las Vegas. Just what it will take to make non-agency securitization economical remains to be seen, though some suggest that regulatory uncertainty plays a major factor. “We have not seen much of a test of the non-agency market because it’s not economical,” said Peter Sack, a managing director and co-head of real estate and mortgage finance at Credit Suisse. “The bank portfolio bid is strong.” ...