The supply of outstanding single-family MBS in the market fell 0.6 percent during the third quarter of 2011, according to a new analysis by Inside MBS & ABS. There was a total of $6.544 trillion of single-family MBS outstanding at the end of September, the lowest level since the third quarter of 2007. Although MBS supplies have been declining steadily over the past four years, securitized loans actually represent a historically high 63.3 percent of total home loan debt outstanding as of the end of the third quarter. The steepest decline is in non-agency MBS, a...(Includes one data chart)

Major mortgage servicers are widely expected to agree to principal reduction for some struggling homeowners as part of the price of settling complaints over foreclosure practices brought by state attorneys general. That idea doesn’t sit well with some MBS investors, who are concerned that they will end up paying some of the cost of reducing principal as a way to keep distressed borrowers in their homes. The Association of Mortgage Investors warns that principal reduction of securitized loans would be akin to forcing the middle class to bear the settlement’s burden. In a statement, the AMI warned that principal reductions could...

Four years after the credit crisis, analysts at Fitch Ratings expect eventual losses from structured finance transactions to soar from current levels, about $94 billion, or 2.7 percent of the original balance of rated transactions, to $376 billion, or 10.6 percent, by the time the dust settles. And the primary culprit, of course, is residential MBS. “Fitch expects a further 9,754 tranches to not recover their full principal, representing 33 percent of all tranches and increasing the proportion of tranches with realized or expected losses to 63 percent of the total...

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac lost a combined $9.2 billion during the third quarter – mostly due to writedowns on derivatives transactions – while the two government-sponsored enterprises continued to watch their massive MBS holdings decline. As of the end of September, Fannie and Freddie held a combined $754.54 billion of MBS in their retained portfolios, down 1.1 percent from the second quarter and a decline of 7.4 percent from the same July through September period last year. Fannie’s holdings of non-agency MBS fell 2.2 percent to $77.1 billion during... (Includes one data chart)

Recent non-agency mortgage loan modifications are showing better results compared to earlier private-label modifications despite a continued slowdown in new modification activity, according to a new Fitch Ratings analysis. While the number of completed modifications dropped, transactions completed in the past 18-24 months have improved slightly over earlier programs as a result of standardized guidelines, the recent Fitch report said. Patterned on the Home Affordable Modification Program, the standardized guidelines helped to focus attention on creating more sustainable modifications. These features included...

New regulatory requirements – including a controversial plan to assign ratings on a rotating basis – are encouraging firms to test the traditional approaches to rating MBS and ABS, but some observers say the reliance on an issuer-pay business model will be tough to change. New rating services are coming up with new ways to assess risk with more dynamic, ongoing reviews and more sources of information, and they’re less reliant on being fed information, said Stephen Kudenholdt, co-chair of the capital markets practice at SNR Denton. But the expectation that the market would shift to an investor-paid model clearly hasn’t...

Not much has changed since the 2010 edition of the ABS East Conference, and the outlook for 2012 is hardly encouraging, but conference sponsor Information Management Network drew about 30 percent more participants to its annual industry gathering in Miami Beach this week. As one attendee put it, everybody at the conference was down on the market, yet nobody is buying and nobody is selling. Regulatory uncertainty continues to stymie securitization activity. The federal government still dominates the U.S. mortgage market, with little change in sight. Tepid economic growth is generating lackluster demand for...

Continued stress in the prime non-agency MBS sector, rising delinquencies and the use of a new loan-level loss model have prompted Fitch Ratings to revise loss expectations for more than 40 percent of non-agency pools backed by prime mortgage loans. A recent review of 1,154 rated transactions backed by prime collateral, consisting of approximately 15,000 bonds, caused Fitch to affirm or upgrade an estimated 58 percent of the prime non-agency MBS portfolio and to downgrade the remaining 42 percent, according to a report by the rating agency. At least 60 percent of the downgraded MBS were rated...

Moody’s Investors Service continued to rank as the top credit rating agency in the non-mortgage ABS market, putting its stamp on 66.9 percent of dollar volume of deals issued in the first half of the year, according to a new Inside MBS & ABS analysis. Moody’s was particularly strong in the vehicle finance and business loan sectors, with market shares approaching 75.0 percent in both categories. The company showed relatively little interest in the student ABS market, but ranked second in rating credit card deals. Standard & Poor’s ranked second overall with a 58.3 percent share of ABS ratings. That included a near...(Includes two data charts)

A proposal from federal regulators to change servicer compensation on future Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac MBS to a fee-for-service model could also end up addressing a major investor beef about the non-agency MBS market: poor servicing of distressed loans and misaligned interests. The Federal Housing Finance Agency this week released a discussion paper outlining a radical change from an existing system that pays Fannie and Freddie servicers a minimum servicing fee regardless of the loan status. The proposed system features a low flat fee for handling performing loans with increased compensation for...