If lenders used the seemingly sensible underwriting standards that were in place in 2001, some 1.2 million more mortgages would have been originated in 2014, according to estimates by the Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center. Laurie Goodman, director of the HFPC, said lenders have “plenty of room to safely ease credit.” An underwriting index from the HFPC suggests that originators are accepting little risk in terms of borrower or loan characteristics, hindering a recovery in the mortgage market and the broader economy. Lenders note...

The credit quality of U.S. conduit/fusion commercial MBS kept degrading during the fourth quarter of 2015, while conduit loan leverage is rising and is expected to continue to do so, according to a new report from Moody’s Investors Service. Conduit loan leverage as measured by the Moody’s Loan to Value (MLTV) ratio ticked upward from 118.2 percent in the third quarter last year to 118.9 percent in the fourth quarter. This is the third time in which that metric has topped the pre-crisis peak level of 117.5 percent, the ratings service said. Further, the conduit loan MLTV rose...

Issuers of MBS and ABS continue to address compliance issues with the Securities and Exchange Commission’s so-called Regulation AB2. Meanwhile, the Structured Finance Industry Group has urged the SEC to continue to delay further action on disclosure proposals that remain outstanding. In August 2014, the SEC published a final rule setting a variety of disclosure requirements for the structured finance market. Issuers of publicly registered MBS and ABS were required to comply with rules, forms and disclosures established by Reg AB2 by Nov. 23, 2015. Asset-level disclosure requirements will take effect Nov. 23 of this year. During a webinar hosted by the law firm of Mayer Brown late last week, Stuart Litwin, a partner at the law firm, said...

Issuers of Ginnie Mae mortgage-backed securities pushed a record $435.80 billion of government-insured loans through the program during 2015, according to a new Inside FHA/VA Lending analysis and ranking. Last year’s total Ginnie MBS issuance topped the previous record of $429.50 billion issued during 2009. The $435.80 billion total for 2015 includes securitization of FHA home-equity conversion mortgages and other single-family loans guaranteed by FHA, the VA, and the Department of Agriculture rural housing program from Ginnie pool-level MBS data that are not truncated. Production in 2015 hit its high-water mark in the third quarter with $128.23 billion in issuance, and then fell 18.0 percent in the final three months of the year. Purchase mortgages continued to account for most Ginnie business in 2015, 58.0 percent of the agency’s forward-mortgage securitizations. But a huge factor in the ... [ Charts ]

The first rated securitization backed by nonperforming Home Equity Conversion Mortgage loans contains strong, credit-positive features that outweigh the credit risk associated with nonperforming loans, according to a Moody’s Investors Service analysis. The effect of some of these positive features on the performance of Nationstar HECM Loan Trust 2015-2, however, depends on whether Nationstar Mortgage remains as servicer for the transaction, said the rating agency. Nationstar has a servicer rating of B2/Stable from Moody’s and is also the transaction’s sponsor. Nationstar issued NHLT 2015-2 in November 2015 and by the end of December, the first remittance report showed strong initial performance. Credit enhancement to the Aaa (sf)-rated notes increased by 1.69 percent in the first month of operations, Moody’s noted. “As long as Nationstar continues to be the ...

New issuance of single-family mortgage-backed securities by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac fell sharply in the fourth quarter of 2015 despite a December rebound in monthly volume, according to a new Inside Mortgage Finance analysis and ranking. The two government-sponsored enterprises issued $179.01 billion of single-family MBS during the final three months of 2015, a 19.9 percent drop from the third quarter. It was the weakest level of new business for the GSEs since the second quarter of 2014. A faltering purchase-mortgage market was...[Includes three data tables]

Investors should see a higher share of VA collateral in Ginnie Mae mortgage-backed securities pools due to increasing VA loan originations, according to Deutsche Bank analysts. Given their rising share of VA collateral, new Ginnie pools are likely to have worse convexity than most of those originated in 2015, analysts said. “VA loans tend to prepay faster than FHA loans when in the money as VA loans have larger loan sizes, higher FICO scores and a more efficient streamline refi program that requires a minimum three months seasoning,” they observed. In addition, analysts expect the population of younger veterans to surge approximately 36 percent over the next five years. “[As such], there will be a healthy supply of new VA originations eligible for pooling,” they said. As a result, the share of FHA relative to VA collateral in new Ginnie II pools will likely decrease, they said. Such a trend has manifested itself slowly as ...

FHA lenders funded $12.3 billion in new Home Equity Conversion Mortgage loans during the first nine months of 2015, up a hefty 22.2 percent from the same period in the prior year, according to Inside FHA/VA Lending’s analysis of agency data. Likewise, HECM endorsements increased 17.3 percent to $4.5 billion in the third quarter from $3.9 billion in the prior quarter. This was the highest HECM endorsements have been since the second quarter of 2013, when they totaled $4.1 billion. Purchase loans accounted for 85.8 percent of all HECM originations over the nine-month period. The majority of borrowers favored adjustable-rate HECMs over fixed-rate HECMs, which accounted for only 14.8 percent of HECM transactions. In addition, the initial principal amount at loan originations totaled $7.3 billion, up from $4.6 billion midway through 2015. The volume increase is attributable to program changes implemented ... [1 chart]

A total of $13.6 billion of rural home loans backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture were securitized during the first nine months of 2015, according to an Inside FHA/VA Lending analysis of agency data.An estimated $5.1 billion of USDA home loans were delivered into Ginnie Mae pools in the third quarter, up 22.8 percent from the prior quarter. In contrast, the nine-month securitization volume fell 4.4 percent from the same period of the prior year. Nine of the top 10 USDA loan securitizers reported quarter-over-quarter increases. Top-ranked Chase Home Finance maintained its lead over other USDA loan securitizers with $4.2 billion in loans securitized during the nine-month period, down 4.8 percent from the previous year and up 32.8 percent on a quarterly basis. Chase’s nine-month USDA volume translated into a 31.0 percent market share. Second-place Wells Fargo funneled $1.7 billion in USDA loans into ... [ chart ]

The seven-year-old era of zero interest rates finally came to an end this week when the Federal Reserve began what may be the first in a series of small rate hikes, opting for a modest 25 basis point rise in the federal funds rate. However, the U.S. central bank also implied it expects four more quarter-point interest rate increases next year. The median projection among Fed Open Market Committee participants for the federal funds rate rises gradually to nearly 1.50 percent in late 2016 and 2.50 percent in late 2017, Fed chair Janet Yellen said in discussing the central bank’s latest moves. Further, as the factors restraining economic growth continue to fade over time, in their view, the projected median rate rises...