Not much has changed since the 2010 edition of the ABS East Conference, and the outlook for 2012 is hardly encouraging, but conference sponsor Information Management Network drew about 30 percent more participants to its annual industry gathering in Miami Beach this week. As one attendee put it, everybody at the conference was down on the market, yet nobody is buying and nobody is selling. Regulatory uncertainty continues to stymie securitization activity. The federal government still dominates the U.S. mortgage market, with little change in sight. Tepid economic growth is generating lackluster demand for...

Most of the major players in mortgage securitization support some of the new disclosures floated by the Securities and Exchange Commission in its revised shelf eligibility proposed rule – with a number of key changes and clarifications. Reflecting the investor’s perspective, the Asset Management Group of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association again “enthusiastically supported” the SEC’s proposal to mandate standardized disclosure at the asset level, believing that all of the asset-level data fields should be mandatory. “Well functioning markets require the disclosure of as much relevant asset-level data as...

Continued stress in the prime non-agency MBS sector, rising delinquencies and the use of a new loan-level loss model have prompted Fitch Ratings to revise loss expectations for more than 40 percent of non-agency pools backed by prime mortgage loans. A recent review of 1,154 rated transactions backed by prime collateral, consisting of approximately 15,000 bonds, caused Fitch to affirm or upgrade an estimated 58 percent of the prime non-agency MBS portfolio and to downgrade the remaining 42 percent, according to a report by the rating agency. At least 60 percent of the downgraded MBS were rated...

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae dominate the mortgage market as they never have before, but all three MBS agencies are committing significant resources to overhauling their systems to prepare for an uncertain future. Freddie Mac “fully gets” the idea that the company does not control its future, said Ed Haldeman, CEO at the government-sponsored enterprise, during a panel session at this week’s annual convention of the Mortgage Bankers Association. But reform proposals that feature multiple MBS securitizers funded with private capital, such as the one put forth by the MBA, look like “a pretty decent road map to the...

Prepayments increased overall in September, particularly on agency fixed-rate MBS, with faster pay-downs occurring in lower coupons, according to analyst reviews of prepayment speeds. The experts expressed surprise at unexpectedly high prepayments for recent low coupon vintages and greater weakness for higher coupons. Deutsche Bank analysts reported that speeds for 4.0 percent Fannie Mae MBS issued in 2010 and 2009 more than doubled in September compared to the previous month. Speeds for similar MBS with 4.5 percent coupons increased also as much, they noted. For example, prepayment speeds for 2010 Fannie MBS with a 4.0 percent coupon...

New issuance of mortgage- and asset-backed securities faltered in the third quarter, although production levels were gaining strength in September. A new Inside MBS & ABS analysis reveals that $330.12 billion of ABS and residential MBS were issued during the third quarter, a decline of 6.3 percent from the previous three-month period. The surprisingly tepid increase in residential MBS issuance was not nearly enough to offset a substantial drop in non-mortgage ABS activity. Non-mortgage ABS issuance fell 43.4 percent from the second to the third quarter, sinking to $24.84 billion and reversing the very...(Includes one data chart)

Moody’s Investors Service continued to rank as the top credit rating agency in the non-mortgage ABS market, putting its stamp on 66.9 percent of dollar volume of deals issued in the first half of the year, according to a new Inside MBS & ABS analysis. Moody’s was particularly strong in the vehicle finance and business loan sectors, with market shares approaching 75.0 percent in both categories. The company showed relatively little interest in the student ABS market, but ranked second in rating credit card deals. Standard & Poor’s ranked second overall with a 58.3 percent share of ABS ratings. That included a near...(Includes two data charts)

Lenders looking to participate in Redwood Trust’s jumbo securitization efforts must meet high standards, according to a review of the real estate investment trust’s new jumbo mortgage-backed security. The major originators in the $375.2 million jumbo MBS Redwood issued last week were all considered “above average” by Fitch Ratings. Redwood has invested significant resources into its jumbo conduit and correspondent program in an effort to revive non-agency securitization. ...

A proposal from federal regulators to change servicer compensation on future Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac MBS to a fee-for-service model could also end up addressing a major investor beef about the non-agency MBS market: poor servicing of distressed loans and misaligned interests. The Federal Housing Finance Agency this week released a discussion paper outlining a radical change from an existing system that pays Fannie and Freddie servicers a minimum servicing fee regardless of the loan status. The proposed system features a low flat fee for handling performing loans with increased compensation for...

The Treasury Market Practices Group late last week clarified its recommended fails charge trading practice for agency MBS to limit the scope to pass-throughs, where fails are most likely to happen. “The agency debt and agency MBS trading practice has been updated to reflect the TMPG’s recommendation that a fails charge apply to agency pass-through MBS issued or guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae,” the group said. The original recommendation was that the charge apply to agency MBS issued or backed by Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie Mae, which also issue most REMICs backed by agency pass-throughs. The TMPG has not...