AGNC watched as volatility rocked the agency MBS market this month. The REIT counted on its cash and liquidity to avoid selling assets at a loss. Other REITs also survived unscathed.
During the early days of the pandemic, mortgage rates dropped, reducing the value of mortgage servicing rights. This month, while tariff-related volatility prompted spreads on agency MBS to widen, lenders selling loans were helped by rising rates, which increase the value of MSRs.
MBS trading increased in March, but not dramatically. Still, concerns persist, including Treasury yields bucking historical norms. Ginnie Mae delinquencies are also an issue.
In the Trump economy, predicting which way rates might go in the wake of a stock market swoon is more difficult than usual. As for MBS spreads narrowing, don’t bet on it anytime soon.
Few issuers tried to price non-agency MBS in the days following President Trump’s tariff announcement last week. An expanded-credit MBS from Annaly priced at the widest spreads seen in more than a year.