If commercial lending rates stay about where they are now, a quarter of loans that expire within the next year will need to either bring in 50% more income than they are currently or reduce their debt by a third.
With interest rates rising, investors want higher premiums on credit-risk transfers. And that makes the transactions less economically appealing for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. (Includes data chart.)
The rating service said both technicals and fundamentals in the mortgage market appear more resilient to stress than in previous crises, while highlighting some vintage differences.
The Federal Reserve hiked rates by another 75 basis points. But Chair Jerome Powell said the time to begin selling the Fed’s MBS holdings “is not close.”
When Ginnie released its new capital eligibility standards this past summer, nonbanks far and wide were not happy. The agency later extended the implementation deadline until late 2024, but some shops are pondering their options. Ocwen is one of them.
Super-senior classes of conduit CMBS transactions should be resilient if office loan values fall, but the lower end of the capital stack may not hold up as well, according to S&P Global Ratings.
Servicers will now have a shorter wait time to deliver reperforming loans back into Ginnie MBS, and the loans will no longer have to go into special RG pools. The changes are aimed at increasing liquidity for Ginnie issuers. (Includes data chart.)
Ginnie Mae President Alanna McCargo said she’s hopeful the one-year extension of the implementation deadline for Ginnie’s new risk-based capital requirements will give its nonbank issuers room to breathe and time to consider their restructuring.