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GSE Shareholder Case Outlook, Will the Trump Administration Make a Difference?

January 20, 2017
As a number of shareholder lawsuits against Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac hang in the balance, a new administration offers reasons for some to be optimistic on the cases coming to a close and the Treasury’s sweep of the government-sponsored enterprises’ profits coming to an end. During a Jan. 18 call hosted by Investors Unite, legal experts weighed in on the outlook for GSE shareholder cases just days before the inauguration. Plaintiffs have been arguing that a government bailout of the GSEs and the subsequent Treasury sweep was unnecessary and illegal. “As GSE shareholders, we are...
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Ratings Services Optimistic on RMBS Sector, But Participants See Trump as Wild Card

January 20, 2017
The residential MBS market is expected to be healthy this year, according to some ratings service analysts. But the new president is the big unknown, market participants say. According to analysts at Fitch Ratings, the rating outlook for U.S. RMBS they rate is auspicious, as they expect asset performance trends to stay positive thanks to support from solid, if somewhat uneven, gains in home prices. “Although a number of legacy transactions continue to face negative rating pressure due to declining loan counts and tail risk, rating upgrades outnumbered...
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Jefferies’ Warehouse Securitizations Seen as Performing Well, Replenished with Strong Mortgages as Collateral Turns Over

January 20, 2017
Credit quality for the loans backing unique warehouse-funding securitizations from Jefferies Funding remains strong, according to Moody’s Investors Service. One of the risks was that weaker collateral could be included in the transactions as time passed. The $225.0 million Station Place Securitization Trust 2016-1 received Aaa ratings from Moody’s last February and a $210.0 million 2016-3 transaction issued in May garnered an with Aaa rating. The rating service evaluated the deals recently as the 2016-1 securitization is set to pay down next month. “To date, there has been...
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Former Jeffries Group Bond Trader Faces Another Trial on MBS Fraud

January 20, 2017
After a two-year rollercoaster ride through the court system that ended in 2015, a former Wall Street trader finds himself facing another trial in an MBS fraud case. Jess Litvak, a former bond trader with the Jeffries Group, will go on trial again after a jury found him guilty in 2014 of violating securities laws. He was accused of fraud and misleading investors about the price he had paid for residential MBS. According to attorneys with the law firm of Shepherd Smith Edwards & Kantas in Houston, the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Connecticut originally brought...
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What We’re Hearing: Time for Steve to Talk to Mel / Going to Bed, Disappointed / The GSE Stock Bet: Buy Low, Sell High / Is Pershing Square Losing Money on the GSEs? / NAR Chief Stays Hopeful on MIP Cut

January 20, 2017
Paul Muolo
As one former GSE stock analyst told us: “There’s no way they can be privatized. To maintain an AAA rating they would need 25 percent (I’m guessing) capital to assets. Even at 5 percent there is not enough spread to earn a market return on capital.”
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Investors Bid Up New Redwood Jumbo MBS Despite Partial Due Diligence

January 20, 2017
The jumbo mortgage-backed security Redwood Trust is set to issue on Jan. 20 received improved pricing compared with the company’s previous deal issued in October. The new MBS is fairly similar to the prior bond, indicating stronger demand from investors. The $343.28 million Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2017-1 priced last week. The super-senior tranche priced 1-20 back of Fannie 3.5s, which was four ticks tighter than Redwood’s previous offering, according to an analysis by Wells Fargo Securities ...
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MBS Investors Seek Legislative Reforms

January 20, 2017
Large swaths of investors will continue to avoid buying non-agency mortgage-backed securities unless Congress passes investor-friendly reforms, according to Chris Katopis, executive director of the Association of Mortgage Investors. “Private capital has virtually left the U.S. mortgage market,” he said. “The future is likely to reflect a similar situation unless Congress helps establish the necessary systems, structures and standards for private capital to return.” In a recent study published by ...
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Some Shifts for Loans in Prime Non-Agency MBS

January 20, 2017
The types of home loans included in prime non-agency mortgage-backed securities issued during the fourth quarter of 2016 varied somewhat compared with issuance from recent quarters, according to an analysis by Inside Nonconforming Markets. Some $907.8 million in prime non-agency MBS was issued during the fourth quarter. Collateral in the deals shifted more toward adjustable-rate mortgages, interest-only mortgages and refinances. ARMs ... [Includes one data chart]
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News Briefs

January 20, 2017
The Department of Justice this week finalized previously announced settlements with Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse regarding non-agency mortgage-backed security activities in the run-up to the financial crisis. The DOJ said the $7.20 billion settlement with Deutsche Bank was the single largest residential MBS resolution for the conduct of a single entity. The settlement with Credit Suisse was for $5.28 billion. Both of the settlements included civil penalties and ... [Includes two briefs]
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FHA/VA Default Rates Spike Up In 4Q16, Nonbanks Still Growing

January 20, 2017
Mortgage default rates appeared to spike higher in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to a new analysis and servicer ranking by Inside FHA/VA Lending. Some 5.51 percent of FHA loans in Ginnie Mae mortgage-backed securities pools were reported as 30- to 60-days past due at the end of December. That was up 80 basis points from the previous quarter and was easily the highest default rate in the past three years. FHA default rates were also up in more serious delinquency categories: loans 60- to 90-days past due and those over 90-days late. The figures are based on loan count and are not seasonally adjusted. Similar trends occurred in the VA home loan guaranty program. The 30-60 category was up 41 bps, while 90+ delinquencies jumped 19 bps. The supply of Ginnie single-family MBS outstanding continued to set new records. The total, not including multifamily and FHA home-equity conversion ... [4 charts]
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