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Road Conditions Deteriorating for Subprime Auto ABS, as Prepays Slow, Suggesting Borrower Distress

June 2, 2017
There are signs of trouble ahead for the subprime auto ABS sector that warrant closer attention to the financial health of that class of borrowers, but it looks like the rising risk is contained, according to some research reports published this week by a pair of Wall Street analysts. In one of the reports, Wells Fargo Securities analysts John McElravey and Ryan Brinkoetter warned of the implications for the fiscal soundness of the borrowers involved. They reviewed the total and voluntary prepayment rates of the major subprime auto ABS issuers, and calculated the average prepayment curves by deal age for issuer and vintage over the 2013-2016 time period. “Much of the analytical focus in auto ABS has been...
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Mortgage Lenders Loosening Credit Standards, But It May Not Impact Origination Volume

June 2, 2017
The credit landscape is improving as more lenders introduce new credit-scoring mechanisms and eligibility requirements, but it may not mean much for mortgage origination volume, at least in the short term, according to a new study by mortgage consulting firm the Stratmor Group. The study noted that when faced with slower housing growth due to demographics, affordability, and higher healthcare costs, lenders will look to loosen underwriting standards to feed their production capacity. Rob Chrisman, senior advisor with Stratmor, said many of the “good borrowers” have refinanced and bought homes already, leaving lenders with borrowers of lesser credit quality. “Lenders and investors, too, are...
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Coin Counting, Pizza, Burgers and Fried Chicken In Latest Round of Whole-Business Securitizations

June 2, 2017
Four whole-business securitizations totaling $3.58 billion are in the works, according to presale reports, including a $900.0 million deal from Coinstar. The securitization from Coinstar received a preliminary BBB rating from Kroll Bond Rating Agency. The company owns nearly 20,000 kiosks that count change located in grocery stores and other retail venues, mostly in the U.S. The company generates...
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GNMA Strengthens Issuer Performance Tool to Improve Comparability, Compliance, Monitoring

June 2, 2017
Ginnie Mae is making enhancements to a tool developed for MBS issuers to help them compare their performance with other issuers and to determine whether they are meeting agency expectations. Improvements to the Issuer Operation Performance Profile (IOPP) tool also would increase scoring transparency and make reports clearer and easier to understand, the agency said. The IOPP was introduced...
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FICO Scores Have the Advantage in the Structured Finance Market, But VantageScore is Catching Up

June 2, 2017
VantageScore is gaining traction as an alternative to FICO credit scores in consumer lending and structured finance, according to a study by DBRS. Introduced in 2006 as a joint venture among three national credit bureaus – TransUnion, Experian and Equifax – VantageScore was first used in securitization transactions backed by student-loan refinancings. Its transition to consumer loans and structured finance demonstrates industry acceptance as an alternative to the widely used FICO scores, DBRS pointed out. The study compares...
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Warehouse Commitment Levels Down Slightly in 1Q17; Profitability of Nonbanks a Concern?

June 1, 2017
Paul Muolo
Larry Charbonneau, who conducts warehouse lending reviews for commercial banks, said usage rates are definitely improving this spring.
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First Republic, Quicken Lead Contributors to New Jumbo MBS from Redwood

June 1, 2017
Brandon Ivey
Roughly 10.8 percent of the mortgages were sourced through the Federal Home Loan Banks’ Mortgage Partnership Finance program.
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PennyMac Financial Hikes LOCs with JPM and Bank of America

June 1, 2017
Paul Muolo
In the first quarter, PennyMac ranked fourth among all home lenders, trailing Wells Fargo, Chase Home Finance and Quicken, according to a ranking from Inside Mortgage Finance.
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Seasonality Slowed Purchase-Mortgage Lending In First Quarter, Outlook Still Strong for 2017

June 1, 2017
Purchase-mortgage lending saw a big drop in volume during the first quarter of 2017, but indicators suggest that the sector has been rebounding in recent months and will post a solid gain by the time the year is over. An estimated $205.0 billion of purchase mortgages were originated in the first quarter, a sizable 19.6 percent decline from the previous period. But with an even bigger 44.6 percent slump in refinance lending, purchase mortgages accounted for over half (53.2 percent) of total first-lien originations in the first three months of the year. It was...[Includes three data tables]
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AIG Ramps Up Prime Jumbo Conduit, Prepares for Non-Agency MBS Issuance

May 31, 2017
Brandon Ivey
AIG buys jumbos servicing-released with Cenlar acting as the subservicer.
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