An underwater borrower’s strategic decision to default on a mortgage is triggered not only by economic conditions but how fast the notion can be transmitted throughout a society, which could either result in a full market recovery or a systemic collapse, according to a new mortgage industry study. The study, Strategic Default in the Context of a Social Network: An Epidemiological Approach, suggests that the key to understanding strategic default is to look at it in terms of a disease and how contagious it is. “As social animals, humans knowingly or otherwise look to their peers before...

The outstanding supply of subprime mortgages in the market continued to decline in the third quarter, but three special servicers significantly increased their portfolios, according to a new ranking and analysis by Inside Nonconforming Markets. The growing servicers – Ocwen Financial, Nationstar Mortgage and Walter Investment Management – all focus on high-touch servicing. Special servicing is in particularly high demand as banks have started to sell their subprime holdings, a trend expected to...

The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s recent proposal to revamp servicer compensation has received mixed reactions from non-agency participants. High-touch servicers approve of the landscape-shifting fee-for-service proposal but analysts suggest that the system would be much more difficult to establish for non-agency mortgages than for agency loans. Ocwen Financial and other servicers that predominantly handle delinquent mortgages favor the FHFA’s proposal that would significantly increase the fees paid to service delinquent loans and lower the base servicing fee for performing loans, perhaps to...

A federal judge in Houston ruled that Allied Home Mortgage Corp. can continue to originate and underwrite FHA-insured loans, putting into question the validity of the Department of Housing and Urban Development’s suspension of the lender’s FHA privileges. U.S. District Court Judge Melinda Harmon, in a 22-page decision issued filed on Nov. 15, said the “potential destruction” of Allied’s business outweighs any harm the government would suffer before the issues can be litigated.

Although some changes under the revised Home Affordable Refinance Program will take effect as early as next month, key features such as automated underwriting and new securitization executions will not be available until well into 2012. Observers found no surprises in the HARP 2.0 seller-servicer bulletins issued this week by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and most expect only a modest expansion in program activity. In many cases, the new rules reflect a standardization of the existing programs offered by the government-sponsored enterprises. Among the new changes are a lifting of the existing 125 percent...

Recent non-agency mortgage loan modifications are showing better results compared to earlier private-label modifications despite a continued slowdown in new modification activity, according to a new Fitch Ratings analysis. While the number of completed modifications dropped, transactions completed in the past 18-24 months have improved slightly over earlier programs as a result of standardized guidelines, the recent Fitch report said. Patterned on the Home Affordable Modification Program, the standardized guidelines helped to focus attention on creating more sustainable modifications. These features included...

The Federal Housing Finance Agency and its wards, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, want to change servicer compensation to provide more resources for addressing nonperforming loans and try to reduce consolidation in the market, but MBS analysts remain concerned that fiddling with the current system could derail the to-be-announced market. “A big concern is that the TBA market for mortgages is very fragile,” said Jim Gross, vice president of financial reporting and public policy at the Mortgage Bankers Association. “Making radical changes could further rock the market.” The more radical proposal outlined by the...

A bill that would create a legislative framework for a covered bond market in the U.S., as well as a potential competitor for the Federal Home Loan Bank system, was introduced this week in the Senate, a counterpart to a long-standing covered bond bill awaiting final approval in the House.The United States Covered Bond Act, S. 1835, sponsored by Sens. Kay Hagan, D-NC, and Bob Corker, R-TN, is nearly identical to a House bill of the same name sponsored by Rep. Scott Garrett, R-NJ, and Carolyn Maloney, D-NY, H.R. 940.

Many mortgage lenders are concerned about a new fee-for-service compensation plan proposed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and their federal regulator – including a change in how servicers get their fees. Under the current minimum servicing fee system, servicers take their slice of compensation out of the interest payments being passed through from borrowers to the government-sponsored enterprises. Under the proposed fee-for-service plan, servicers would pass through the entire consumer payment and then get their compensation from the GSEs. Beyond the economics of the proposed change – servicers would get a flat fee, perhaps...

The Obama administration’s refinance program for underwater mortgages got a much-publicized jolt of expanded guidelines that could stimulate new business, but the older Home Affordable Modification Program appears to be slowing down. An Inside Mortgage Finance analysis of recently released HAMP data reveals that only 74,630 new trial mods were started under the program during the third quarter. That was down 7.1 percent from the second quarter and represented the lowest number since the program began. Although there was an 11.8 percent increase in...(Includes one data chart)