Economists pick through the mortgage data to try to understand when things will get better for the industry.

A few years back, Better looked like a sure thing: It boasted state-of-the art origination technology. Today, the nonbank is bleeding red ink and dependent on a convertible note held by a Japanese multinational.

A decline in interest rates near the end of 2023 drove up refi volume. Meanwhile, purchase-mortgage lending declined slightly on a sequential basis as seasonal factors limited demand. (Includes four data tables.)

Another long-time player is exiting warehouse lending. The twist: There’s nothing wrong with Flagstar’s nonbank business. The problem is that the depository is owned by NYCB, which needed an investor-infusion earlier this year.

A consumer advisory board meeting convened this week by the CFPB included an emphasis on issues in the mortgage market.

Some see Freddie Mac’s proposal to acquire second liens as a way to boost originations of the products. Others suggest that GSE involvement in the sector will have minimal impact as demand from borrowers appears to be limited.

Changes in loan characteristics for new acquisitions and new capital requirements combined to reduce the “profitability gap” for GSE business in 2022.

New York Community Bank’s new leadership has plans to return to profitability. It’s not clear how residential mortgages fit into those plans.

Lenders continue to make bulk purchases to offset runoff in their portfolios and make up for anemic originations. However, demand for MSRs could be near a peak, according to industry analysts.

If you’re looking for signs of hope in a difficult mortgage market, a source of inspiration might be the debt values of certain lender/servicers.