The annual increase in conforming loan limits creates a natural experiment for economists to examine how competition from nonbanks influences the operations of depositories.
The conventional-conforming share of first-lien originations declined from 59.2% in 2023 to 56.5% in 2024. Both government-insured products and nonconforming loans gained share. (Includes two data tables.)
Economists caution that forecasts for interest rates on mortgages come with more uncertainty than usual due to Trump administration policies on tariffs and other issues.
Even though their businesses depend on Fannie and Freddie, private mortgage insurance providers don’t seem worried about the Trump administration’s efforts to release the GSEs from conservatorship.
Trump’s election win stalled the Biden administration’s effort to impose tougher capital requirements for banks. Federal regulators are likely to continue to work on the reforms, but in a more bank-friendly way.
Refinance lending ended 2024 on a high note as interest rates on mortgages declined in the second half of the year. The purchase-mortgage market saw little growth, most of it driven by first-time homebuyer activity.