Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac cannot remain safely in conservatorship indefinitely, and they cannot get out from under Uncle Sam’s protection without “cataclysmic” consequences to the government-sponsored enterprises, MBS investors and the market, according to a new Urban Institute study. While the Federal Housing Finance Agency and the White House can make minor changes administratively, the UI paper notes it would take an act of Congress to authorize substantial revisions to the GSEs’ bailout agreement. “They can take...

Issuance of agency MBS has dropped off in the past year due to a decline in the supply of refinances. However, industry analysts expect that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will boost the supply of agency MBS with issuance backed by modified mortgages and re-performing loans. Fannie and Freddie could have $250 billion in modified mortgages on their balance sheets, according to estimates by Deutsche Bank Securities. The two government-sponsored enterprises will likely unload the holdings via securitization, prompted by portfolio reduction goals established by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Freddie has been...

U.S. auto ABS may have hit a few potholes in recent months, but seasonal factors and investors’ hunger for greater returns is strengthening the sector, especially for subprime deals, according to Wall Street analysts. “Subprime auto ABS continue to benefit from the hunt for yield,” said Elen Callahan and Kayvan Darouian, analysts with Deutsche Bank, in a recent research report. Many deals are oversubscribed and are often upsized, they added. “With spread differentials of up to 600 basis points, depending on issuer and tranche, investors who are comfortable with the asset class’s recent performance are moving from the top of the credit structure, down to the first-loss piece, to pick up yield.” Increased demand for subprime auto ABS subordinate bonds is...

The market for securities backed by proceeds from single-family rental properties is set to grow from deals backed by a single firm to pools with multiple sponsors, according to industry analysts. The sector has produced more volume than the jumbo MBS market in recent months and investor demand for single-family rental securities remains strong. Rating services are projecting that single-family rental securities soon will come to market with multiple sponsors or borrowers in a single security. Kroll Bond Rating Agency released...

A new poll on the Inside Mortgage Finance website tells the story: Just 24 percent of respondents want Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac taken out to the Jersey Meadowlands by Luca Brasi. (Leave the gun, take the cannolis.)

Commercial banks and savings institutions generated $3.37 billion in mortgage banking income during the first quarter of 2014, according to a new Inside Mortgage Trends analysis of call reports. First-quarter bank and thrift mortgage banking profits were down 36.2 percent from the fourth quarter of last year and 56.2 percent off the robust $7.70 billion the industry earned in the first three months of 2013. The first quarter of 2014 marked the lowest ... [Includes one data chart]

A decline in refinance activity has prompted a number of lenders to turn to correspondent producers in an effort to boost originations. While correspondent lenders could anticipate better pricing due to the demand for their originations, firms buying the production concede that it’s not the most profitable origination channel, suggesting that pricing might not improve much. Big banks continue to dominate the correspondent channel while reducing ...

Mortgage servicing rights will never trade as freely as mortgage-backed securities, but agency officials say they are considering ways to facilitate the increasingly active MSR market. “The market is undergoing tremendous changes with great opportunities in mortgage servicing,” said Bob Ryan, a special advisor at the Federal Housing Finance Agency, during last week’s Secondary Market Conference sponsored by the Mortgage Bankers Association. “It has attracted ...

The mortgage market’s shift from a focus on refinances to purchase mortgages won’t be enough to prompt an increase in purchase-mortgage originations in 2014, according to industry economists. The Mortgage Bankers Association revised its origination projections last week, predicting that purchase-mortgage originations will decline by 4.0 percent in 2014 compared with the previous year. An estimated $680 billion in purchase mortgages ... [Includes one data chart]

Reset issues in the government’s Home Affordable Modification Program will begin to surface in 2016 and worsen in later years, but the impact will be less severe than predicted, according to a new commentary by the Urban Institute. Analysts with the institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center said HAMP resets will be a challenge for many borrowers, particularly those who received the steepest interest rate reduction. “However, we are likely years away from ...