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Higher Interest Rates Could Cause Performance Problems For Commercial MBS

July 2, 2015
An increase in short-term interest rates will have an outsized impact on commercial MBS among structured finance assets, according to Moody’s Investors Service. In a report released last week, the rating service said higher interest rates will be credit negative for existing deal performance and new issuance for commercial MBS and largely neutral for residential MBS and most ABS sectors. As interest rates rise, Moody’s said term default risk on loans backing new issue commercial MBS will increase because the loans’ debt service coverage ratios will be lower than the DSCRs at the time of origination of loans in outstanding deals. “Rates on loans backing new conduit deals will increase, thereby reducing DSCR in relation to a given property’s cash flow,” the rating service said. “New conduit deals are typically backed by loan pools that were originated no more than ...
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Investors Author Conservatorship Report, Argues Fuzzy Math

July 2, 2015
Two activist investors have authored a report highlighting the debate surrounding the facts and numbers that led to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac being placed into conservatorship in 2008. In the 27-page report, Adam Spittler and Mike Ciklin argue that the Treasury unfairly justified GSE conservatorship via “tricky accounting” methods. In the second quarter of 2008, the report said Fannie reported a net loss of $2.8 billion. But they noted some discrepancies. “As per our analysis, we must add back the non- cash Loan Loss Reserve of $5.5 billion. After this adjustment, Fannie Mae shows a cash net income figure of $3.2 billion. This is poor evidence of a ‘failing business model,’” said the report.
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FHFA’s Quarterly Review of the GSEs Points to Profitability

July 2, 2015
The Federal Housing Finance Agency released its performance review of first-quarter earnings for the GSEs this week and it stands to reason that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could post strong earnings for the second quarter. Here’s why: loan production was decent, which means guaranty fee income should be as well. But the real gain could come from rising interest rates. When rates fell during the first quarter, Fannie and Freddie booked $4.2 billion losses from the markdown on the value of derivative securities they use to hedge. Rates increased in the second quarter, which means the question now becomes: how much of a gain will the two book? Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reported continued profitability in the first quarter of 2015...
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Risk to Investors in Agency MBS Seen as Limited

July 2, 2015
Clean-up calls executed by U.S. Bank on Ginnie Mae real estate mortgage investment conduits in recent years have caused problems for some investors, but industry analysts suggest that overall, the risk agency MBS investors face from clean-up calls is limited. Analysts at Performance Trust Capital Partners, an investing firm, warned recently that U.S. Bank has made about $53 million in profit the past three years by completing clean-up calls on Ginnie REMICs where the bank was the trustee. On Ginnie REMICs, trustees are allowed to complete clean-up calls when the outstanding balance on the security falls to less than 1.0 percent of the aggregate of the original class principal balance for the security. When executing a clean-up call, the trustee pays off the investors in the MBS at par. On Ginnie deals where U.S. Bank has completed clean-up calls, the REMICs have generally been trading at ...
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Single-Family Rental Securitizations Stable and Performing Well

July 2, 2015
Single-family rental securitizations appear to be performing well, according to analysts at Morningstar Credit Ratings, with few signs of trouble on the horizon. “Vacancy rates generally remain low, cash flows remain sufficient to cover bond obligations, and … the recently released May property-level data for the single-borrower, single-family rental asset class shows performance in line with its recent history,” the rating service said in a new report. Overall, monthly retention rates remain in the mid-70s to low-80s. Also, “delinquency rates are slightly higher from their April levels but remain mostly low.” Lease expirations are generally rising across SFR securitizations, Morningstar said, but vacancy rates have remained relatively flat month-over-month. “Although delinquency rates rose slightly across most transactions, the number of tenants past due on their payments remains low,” the analysts said. Elsewhere, so far, ...
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GSEs Get $133 Billion Business Increase Thanks to QM ‘Patch’

July 2, 2015
The GSEs benefited from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s free pass on the debt-to-income ratio requirements of the qualified-mortgage rule, resulting in a $132.9 billion increase in business.A new Inside Mortgage Finance analysis of mortgage-backed securities data illustrates that from the beginning of 2014 through the end of the first quarter of 2015, approximately 16.3 percent of the loans securitized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had DTI ratios exceeding 43 percent. In the non-agency world, a qualified mortgage has to have a DTI ratio of 43 percent or less. While the government-insured market has its own QM rules that effectively ignore DTI, a loan eligible for sale to the GSEs is considered a qualified mortgage if it meets all the QM criteria – such as no interest-only payments – other than the DTI cap.
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Mayors Call on HUD, GSEs to Stop NPL Sales to Wall Street

July 2, 2015
The U.S. Conference of Mayors has joined a growing number of entities urging the Department of Housing and Urban Development, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and certain major banks to stop selling distressed and nonperforming mortgages to Wall Street investors. Rather than sell pools of NPLs to private-equity firms, hedge funds and other speculators, sell them to qualified nonprofits for the purpose of saving homes from foreclosure and creating affordable housing, the group stated in a resolution co-sponsored by 17 mayors. The mayors point to a joint study issued recently by the Center for Popular Democracy and the ACCE Institute. The study said most NPL pools are auctioned off at steep discounts to hedge funds and private-equity firms. “Although Fannie and Freddie have been unwilling to offer principal reduction to struggling homeowners, they often offer steep discounts when they ...
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FHFA OK’s FHLB Non-Members To Service Acquired Mortgages

July 2, 2015
Non-members of the Federal Home Loan Banks are able to service mortgages under the Acquired Member Asset program, according to a recent regulatory interpretation issued by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. FHLBanks have been challenged with finding eligible members to take over the servicing of AMA loans from private financial institutions that want to transfer the servicing rights for various reasons. Some members want to do so because they can no longer service the loan, and others are unwilling to continue servicing the loan, said the FHFA. As a result, a number of banks have been considering or have already allowed the sale of servicing rights to institutions that are neither members of any bank, or affiliates of bank system members.
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So, Is the FHA Still Sick or Not?

July 1, 2015
George Brooks
The report from Potomac Partners bears the good news about FHA...
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SCOTUS Decision on Disparate Impact Could Embolden the CFPB

July 1, 2015
Thomas Ressler
FBR Capital Markets analysts said the ruling allows the CFPB and the Department of Justice to retain their use of disparate impact under the Equal Credit Opportunity Act...
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