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MBS Prices Continue to Dive as the Rates Climb; FNMA 3.5 Replaces the 3.0 as the Benchmark

December 2, 2016
The average daily trading volume in agency MBS hit a yearly high of $224.4 billion in October, according to figures compiled by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association. With liquidity improving, the year-to-date average now stands at $206.6 billion, compared to $198.7 billion in 2015. The November reading should be out by the end of next week. Investors might be...
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Rate Shock Doesn’t Portend Well for Bank, Overseas Investors in MBS, Analysts Say

December 2, 2016
Analysts at Wells Fargo Securities worry that the post-election rate shock is not a positive omen for bank and overseas investors in MBS. “Since the U.S. presidential election, the 10-year yield has sold off by 55 basis points in a matter of two weeks,” they said in a recent client note. “Although banks and overseas investors are typically looking to buy on dips, large selloffs do not bode well for demand from these investors right after a rate shock. For banks, a large rate shock results in a hit on their regulatory capital.” According to their calculations, during the week ending Nov. 9, 2016, the net realized gains on bank portfolios declined...
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Courtrooms Attempt to Wrap Up Several MBS Lawsuits Stemming from Financial Crisis

December 2, 2016
Several pending mortgage lawsuits spawned by the housing crisis are inching closer to closure, including an apparent victory for Bank of America. The Department of Justice let the deadline pass to appeal a ruling from May in which BofA, defending practices of Countrywide Financial, escaped having to pay more than $1 billion in penalties to the Federal Housing Finance Agency. In 2014, a federal judge ordered...
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Despite Restrictions, PACE Securitizations Are Picking Up, Market Outlook for 2017 Optimistic

December 2, 2016
Securitization of residential and commercial loans with Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE) assessments has been growing over the last few years despite having only a few market players, prompting analysts to predict continued growth for the PACE securities market. Residential PACE financing has increased to $2.9 billion with 130,000 home upgrades since 2010, according to second quarter 2016 data from industry group PACE Nation. Commercial PACE financing, meanwhile, has grown to $304 million with 820 commercial projects over the same period. Three programs accounted...
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What We’re Hearing: Will the GSE-Investing PE Firms Get Greedy? / Buy Low, Sell High? / How Plugged In is Mnuchin? / Will Trump Try to Bring White Collar Jobs Back Home Too? / The Strange Case of Nebraska and FHA Loan Limits / Meg Burns Gets Promoted

December 2, 2016
Paul Muolo
Will the GSE-investing PE firms blow it?
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SFIG Plan on Non-Agency MBS Reps and Warrants Puts Burden on Aggregators

December 2, 2016
Standards proposed by the Structured Finance Industry Group for disclosures of representations and warranties on new non-agency mortgage-backed securities are likely to put a burden on conduits and other aggregators that pool mortgages from scores of originators. The Wall Street group recently released the fourth edition of its RMBS 3.0 “green papers,” which aim to revive issuance of non-agency MBS by making reforms that will attract investors. The latest green paper focused on ...
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Higher Loan Limits Take Small Non-Agency Bite

December 2, 2016
New loan limits for the government-sponsored enterprises in 2017 won’t have much of an impact on jumbo originations, according to an analysis by Inside Nonconforming Markets. The Federal Housing Finance Agency announced last week that the baseline conforming loan limit for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will increase in 2017, which will also boost the GSEs’ high-cost loan limit. The baseline conforming loan limit will increase to $424,100 in 2017, up from the $417,000 level it has ...
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Trump Administration to Push for GSE Reform

December 2, 2016
Reform of the government-sponsored enterprises and a potential for more non-agency lending will be a priority for the Trump administration, according to the presumptive nominee to head the Treasury Department. President-elect Donald Trump is likely to nominate Steve Mnuchin to lead the Treasury. Mnuchin is a former partner at Goldman Sachs, founded the hedge fund Dune Capital Management and was among the investors that purchased IndyMac in 2009. In an interview this week on ...
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Jumbo Servicing Increases for Many in 3Q16

December 2, 2016
Most of the top 30 servicers of jumbo mortgages increased their servicing portfolios during the third quarter, according to a new Inside Nonconforming Markets ranking. The volume of jumbo mortgages outstanding rose to an estimated $892.4 billion as of the end of September, up 1.7 percent from June and up 10.2 percent from a year ago. Wells Fargo remained the top jumbo servicer, with a $275.1 billion portfolio. That was up 1.1 percent compared to the second quarter ... [Includes one data chart]
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Moody’s Issues Caution on Bank-Statement Loans

December 2, 2016
Moody’s Investors Service published a warning this week regarding mortgage programs that use bank statements and letters from accountants to verify borrowers’ income. The rating service said that type of underwriting – especially when relying on fewer than 24 months of statements – yields loans that are more risky than mortgages that have traditional income verification. Bank-statement mortgages have gained some prominence in the non-agency market this year as Lone Star Funds ...
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