In mid-December, MBA was projecting interest rates would hold at 6.4% throughout 2026. However, MBA now anticipates the average rate will be 6.1% in the first quarter and hold at that level through the year.

President Trump’s announcement that the GSEs will buy $200 billion of agency MBS prompted mortgage spreads to tighten by about 20 basis points and some lenders to offer mortgages below 6.00%.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed industry speculation that President Trump directed the GSEs to purchase $200 billion in MBS to offset Federal Reserve policy.