Ongoing declines to interest rates boosted refinance originations in the fourth quarter of 2025 while purchase-mortgage lending looks to have fallen as part of a seasonal trend.
"The competitive environment for refinances was, quite frankly, stronger than what I’ve seen historically in an interest rate decline," said David Spector, chairman and CEO of Pennymac Financial Services.
"We’re not going to destroy the value of their homes so that somebody that didn’t work very hard can buy a home," President Trump said Thursday. "We’re going to make it easier to buy. We’re going to get interest rates down, but I want to protect the people that for the first time in their lives feel good about themselves."
Interest rate and spread volatility has declined in recent months. That’s leading to a reduction in potential returns from agency MBS along with a more stable investing environment.
Production of first-lien residential mortgages increased by 17.3% during the fourth quarter of 2025. Refinances soared while purchase-mortgage activity declined as part of a seasonal trend. (Includes two data tables.)
In mid-December, MBA was projecting interest rates would hold at 6.4% throughout 2026. However, MBA now anticipates the average rate will be 6.1% in the first quarter and hold at that level through the year.