Agency MBS trading hit a yearly low in May. What lies ahead will be determined by the Federal Reserve. Will the central bank ease credit? And if so, what will happen to MBS prepayments?
The Federal Reserve reduced its holdings of agency MBS by $47 billion during the first quarter, but several other investor groups picked up the slack. Total MBS outstanding grew 0.4% during the first three months of the year.
The trading volume was decent during April but paled in comparison to most other months this year. Meanwhile, investors are worried about the usual: declining interest rates and prepayment rates. And a new wild card has emerged: A possible rate cut by the Fed.
Annaly Capital Management Corp. and AGNC Investment Corp. continued their MBS-hoarding ways during the first quarter but have had to deal with paper losses and negative hedging marks thanks to lower interest rates.
Ginnie Mae has completed liquidity talks with its 14 largest nonbank issuers, but has yet to say what transpired during the meetings. But all that could change when the agency hosts its annual summit in June.
Quicken Loans and United Shore Financial Services ranked as the top two agency MBS producers in April, dumping the market's long-time leader, Wells Fargo, into third. The megabank still ranked number one on a year-to-date basis.
The average daily trading volume in agency MBS shot up like a rocket to $269.7 billion in March, one of the best readings in quite some time. But what does it indicate?
Production of new MBS and ABS fell in almost every category during the first quarter of 2019, but several markets showed rebounding volume in March, a new Inside MBS & ABS analysis shows. Preliminary estimates indicate that a total of $310.04 billion of MBS and ABS was issued in the first three months of 2019, a 10.3% decline from the previous three-month period. It marked the softest quarter in new issuance since the April-June cycle ... [Includes three data charts]
The market leaders in rating non-agency MBS and non-mortgage ABS retained their top rankings in 2018. S&P Global was the top rating service in the ABS market, according to a new Inside MBS & ABS market analysis, after rating $142.24 billion of new issuance, an 11.6% percent increase from 2017. [Includes two data charts.]