Read the tea leaves: Rising rates and a jump in MBS activity could portend trouble up around the bend.

So far, performance of the multifamily businesses of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2021 resembles 2020. It’s not clear if these similarities will persist.

In late 2020, Fannie came back into credit-risk transfers with a bespoke deal with one of its largest nonbank sellers. Freddie continued full speed ahead with more traditional STACR issuance. (Includes data chart.)

Due to COVID-related forbearances, Freddie faced a $2.2 billion increase in its provisions for losses in 2020. However, that expense was more than offset by an across the board increase in revenues.

Trade group officials believe by opening a dialogue with regulators they can fix the GSE cash window “problem” that is looming.

Have Federal Reserve policies, and the flood of refis that they’ve created, permanently altered MBS markets?

What might the new Biden administration do with Fannie and Freddie? Good things ahead for Ginnie? Let the speculation begin.

The latest transaction is an actual loss deal issued through a trust; previous Multifamily Structured Credit Risk deals were structured as fixed-severity deals issued as corporate debt.

In 2020, mortgage records were broken all over the industry. MBS trading, meanwhile, had its best year since 2010.