Analysts expect the U.S. economic recovery to continue on a slow, weak path into 2013 with the potential for a new recession that could weaken the residential MBS market. At Standard & Poor’s, analysts predict a “slow and uneven” economic recovery with a 15 percent to 20 percent chance of another recession that would be less severe than the 2008-2009 financial crisis but potent enough to sap the MBS market. S&P assumes a reversal in home prices and unemployment rising to near 9 percent in 2013, which could hamper borrower capacity to make their mortgage payments. Overall, S&P’s outlook for the single-family MBS market is...

Democrats are making another attempt to require the forgiveness of principal on delinquent mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as the White House and lawmakers are in talks to avoid the pending fiscal cliff. This week a group of 18 House Democrats dispatched a letter to President Obama and congressional leaders of both parties urging them to expand assistance to borrowers as part of any tax increase and spending cut resolution package. “Given the clear benefits of providing assistance to underwater borrowers, as well as the significant savings for the American taxpayers, we believe that provisions expanding such assistance should be part of any deal to resolve the fiscal cliff,” the members wrote. “At a minimum, such legislation should require that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac offer principal reduction loan modifications to borrowers who are net present value positive.”

In what has become an annual tradition, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac each announced last week that all foreclosure-related evictions of single-family and two-to-four unit properties are suspended nationwide until after the New Year. “We are instructing our foreclosure attorneys to suspend pending eviction lockouts on foreclosed homes in order to provide a greater measure of certainty to families during the holiday season,” said Tracy Mooney, Freddie’s senior vice president of servicing and REO.

Mortgage lenders saw a welcome decline in the volume of repurchases and indemnifications they had to make during the third quarter, but a new analysis of two major databases by Inside Mortgage Trends reveals that the industry made little progress in resolving the massive overhang of disputes involving loans from the depth of the housing crisis. According to bank call reports, repurchases and indemnifications declined by 21.6 percent from the second to the third quarter ... [Includes 3 data charts]

Government regulations and compliance changes are making it difficult for mortgage professionals to do business in the current environment, while outdated technology and manual processes are impeding the workflow, according to a new Genpact study. Faced with new regulations and a slow housing recovery, the mortgage marketplace badly needs new technology solutions and improved business processes, said the study, which was compiled for Genpact Limited, a provider of ...

Mortgage industry participants reading tea leaves expect that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will write a definition of “qualified mortgages” that covers about 90 percent of current production, and they suggest that the long-awaited final rule could even boost originations. However, concerns remain about the liability that will come with QM originations and the clarity of the QM definition. Speakers at a panel discussion hosted by the American Securitization Forum this week predicted that the pending QM rule will cover a large majority of current mortgage production, based on previous comments from Richard Cordray, director of the CFPB. Edward Mills, a research analyst and senior vice president at FBR Capital Markets, added...

The mortgage industry is fearful of expanded liability after the Consumer Financial Protection Agency reportedly asked financial institutions with wholesale mortgage operations to monitor and ensure correspondents’ compliance with consumer protection laws and regulations. Lenders are said to be anxious about being held liable for purchased defective mortgages originated by unaffiliated third parties, and they are wary about new entrants that are trying to fill the void left by the traditional, larger players when they exited the wholesale broker/correspondent market. The CFPB has not issued...

The memorandum of understanding (MOU) announced recently between the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the Department of Justice does not represent a major policy shift but could lead to more referrals of fair lending cases to the DOJ, according to industry lawyers. Compliance attorneys said information-sharing between the two agencies will likely trigger new fair lending inquiries into origination and servicing practices. In addition, both agencies subscribe to the disparate impact theory and are expected to continue to push it, attorneys noted. The new MOU supplements...

Fair lending enforcement moved to a new level last week when the CFPB and the Department of Justice signed an agreement to strengthen the coordination of their efforts in this regard as well as to avoid duplication. The good news for the industry is any effort to reduce government duplication could similarly reduce lenders’ compliance burden. Under the memorandum of understanding the agencies signed, the CFPB and Justice will meet regularly on investigations and establish strict confidentiality for shared information...