Mortgage industry economists widely agree that loan origination volume is going to drop sharply in 2013 – and again next year – although there is some variation in when they expect the downturn to take hold. The consensus view of economists at Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association is that new originations in 2013 will drop 13.6 percent from last year’s level, falling to $1.635 trillion. The consensus – a simple average calculated by Inside Mortgage Trends – predicts ... [Includes one data chart]

GSE principal reduction could end up saving the government money but its reach to additional distressed borrowers would be limited, according to a report by the Congressional Budget Office. Expanding Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s loan modification policy to include principal forgiveness under the current Home Affordable Modification Program would probably generate fewer than 60,000 additional modifications, concluded the CBO report published last week.

Democrats are happy, but not quite content, with President Obama’s long-awaited action last week to send the name of Rep. Mel Watt, D-NC, to the Senate as the White House’s nominee for director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Prominent progressives are doubling down by demanding that Edward DeMarco, the FHFA’s long-standing but embattled acting director, be dispatched out of office by the president forthwith. Freshman Senator and one-time Consumer Financial Protection Bureau architect Elizabeth Warren, D-MA, and New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman, D, lauded Watt’s nomination, then immediately demanded that Obama appoint a new FHFA acting director in the interim.

Total primary mortgage insurance coverage provided by private MIs fell 6.5 percent to $50.44 billion in the first quarter, a figure that includes HARP loans.

Fannie Mae is set to "give back" $50.6 billion to the U.S. Treasury by June 30, thanks to stellar earnings and accounting treatment of deferred tax assets.

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and their government overseer are considering adding new features to the common securitization platform in addition to the major components in the initial design, according to officials speaking at the Mortgage Bankers Association Secondary Market Conference in New York this week. A potential addition to the project would include “life flow data” about the mortgage transaction, said Manoj Singh, associate director in the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s Office of Strategic Initiatives. The common securitization platform, or CSP, has been focused on the securitization function, but feedback from the industry has raised the prospect of expanding it to house all the data points that could be needed over the life of the loan, including foreclosure disposition, if it comes to that. Once the government-sponsored enterprises start...

Most mortgage industry observers expect the Federal Housing Finance Agency to raise Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac guaranty fees by about 20 basis points this year, but many are convinced that the impact on market practices may be bigger than the magnetic effect on private capital. The FHFA has said it wants to raise g-fees to the point that private capital comes into the market, according to Paul Mullins, a senior vice president and interim head of single-family at Freddie Mac. During remarks at the secondary market conference sponsored by the Mortgage Bankers Association this week, he said “The odds are reasonably good you will see higher guaranty fees.” Already around 50 bps and twice their historic level, the fees charged...

The mortgage industry has a window of opportunity to improve the secondary market without having to wait years for Congress to deal with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, according to the leadership of the Mortgage Bankers Association, which this week announced a three-prong agenda that doesn’t depend on new legislation. The conservatorships of the two government-sponsored enterprises, which will be five years old in October, were intended to be a short “time out,” and there is still no endgame in sight or any plan for transition, said MBA President and CEO David Stevens, during the group’s secondary market conference in New York this week. Stevens outlined...

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac this week reported a combined $63.3 billion in net income during the first quarter of 2013, which represents a huge dividend to taxpayers on the total $189.4 billion capital infusion they received since going into conservatorship. Together, the two government-sponsored enterprises will have paid $131.6 billion to the Treasury by the end of the second quarter, when the government “sweep” of excess net worth takes place. Under the terms of their bailout, the GSEs never pay down their Treasury draws, regardless of how much they pay in preferred stock dividends or net-worth sweeps. But Fannie and Freddie are...

Expanding Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s loan modification policy to include principal forgiveness under the Home Affordable Modification Program would generate fewer than 60,000 additional modifications and avoid up to 100,000 defaults, according to the Congressional Budget Office. The Congressional numbers-cruncher concluded that reaching additional borrowers “would require a significant departure” from HAMP’s current eligibility rules. In 2010, the Treasury Department expanded...