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Inside The GSEs
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2015 Origination Forecast: Cloudy with a Hint of Optimism

November 3, 2014
John Bancroft
If housing markets are stronger than expected and rates stay low enough, originations could hit $1.421 trillion next year.
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IG: Fed Tapering GSE MBS Will Curtail Guaranty Fee Revenue

October 31, 2014
The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing tapering will put a dent in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac guaranty fee revenues, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s Inspector General. The evaluation report issued by the IG last week concluded that as the central bank pulls back from the mortgage-backed securities market, interest rates will drift higher and the GSEs will do less business, meaning declining g-fee revenue.
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MBA Opposes FHFA IG Proposed Seller/Servicer Auditor Rotation

October 31, 2014
The Mortgage Bankers Association has formally called upon the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s official watchdog to reconsider some of its proposals meant to prevent the next multi-billion dollar fraud scheme against Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In a letter dispatched to the FHFA’s Inspector General late last week, the MBA cited its opposition to certain recommendations the IG made to the Finance Agency in its August post-mortem on the swindle perpetrated by the now-defunct Taylor, Bean & Whitaker Mortgage.
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OCC: Freddie Re-Default Mods Perform Ahead of Fannie in 2Q14

October 31, 2014
Modified Freddie Mac mortgages performed better than Fannie Mae loans more than two years after modification as the performance gap between the two GSE closed slowly, according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The OCC’s latest Mortgage Metrics Report noted that Freddie loans had a 15.5 percent re-default rate six months after modification, while Fannie mods saw a 16.2 percent rate.At the 12-month mark, Freddie stood at 21.9 percent compared to Fannie’s 23.2 percent.
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Enterprise Endnotes

October 31, 2014
FHFA’s Watt Promises a CEO for the CSP by Year-end. After a year of searching for a chief executive to lead Common Securitization Solutions, the Federal Housing Finance Agency is getting closer to picking a candidate for the job. Speaking at the annual convention of the Mortgage Bankers Association in Las Vegas last week, FHFA Director Mel Watt promised the industry that a CEO would be named by Dec. 31. The FHFA’s search firm is Spencer Stuart.
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GSE MBS Business Activity Posts Overall Increase in September

October 31, 2014
Together, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in September posted a combined increase in the volume of single-family mortgages securitized, according to a new Inside The GSEs analysis. Fannie and Freddie issued $64.1 billion in single-family mortgage-backed securities in September, a 4.9 percent increase from August. However, September’s MBS issuance was down 56.7 percent on a year-to-date basis.
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Credit Boxes Changing Very Little

October 31, 2014
Top mortgage sellers to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac appear to be focusing even more on lower-risk mortgages, according to a new Inside Mortgage Trends analysis of loan-level mortgage-backed securities data. Some 62.9 percent of loans delivered in the third quarter had credit scores of 740 or above, up from 61.9 percent in the second quarter and 60.5 percent in the first three months of the year. The data exclude mortgages with loan-to-value ratios exceeding ... [Includes one data chart]
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Commercial MBS Market on Fire: Deal Volume Jumps 38 Percent

October 31, 2014
John Bancroft
Non-agency issuers produced $32.16 billion of new commercial MBS, a 40 percent increase from the second quarter.
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Fed Ends Quantitative Easing Program, As Expected, But Will Yields Rise Enough to Lure Other Investors?

October 31, 2014
The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee brought the latest installment in its quantitative easing programs to a conclusion this week, but the central bank will continue to reinvest principal payments back into agency MBS. The FOMC also reaffirmed the current 0 to 0.25 percent target range for the federal funds rate. “The committee anticipates … that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the 0 to 0.25 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program this month, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.” And as usual, the Fed left...
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Fannie, JPMorgan Debut New Risk-Sharing Vehicle, Freddie Rolls Out Two STACRs Totaling $1 Billion

October 31, 2014
Fannie Mae and JPMorgan Chase announced this week they are partnering in a new risk-sharing vehicle that features recourse provided to the government-sponsored enterprise on nearly $1 billion of new Chase originations. Separately, Freddie Mac has priced two more Structured Agency Credit Risk Transactions. JPMorgan Madison Avenue Securities Trust 2014-1 will simulate the behavior of a $989 million pool of JPMorgan-originated mortgages delivered into Fannie-guaranteed MBS. While similar to Fannie’s Connecticut Avenue Securities program, there are...
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