Supporters of the non-agency residential MBS market will have plenty of heavy lifting to do next year, as they face an anticipated increase in volatility for some deals and a continued dominating presence in the broader market by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, among a host of challenges. But at least there’s some degree of regulatory certainty for the market now, and it’s likely that opportunities will emerge for savvy investors to snap up some extra yield, according to a consensus of Wall Street analysts who cover the space. Analysts at Fitch Ratings expect to see the continuation of a slow recovery for the non-agency MBS space in 2015. “The recovery in primary U.S. RMBS issuance remains anemic as the industry continues to face challenges including continued government-sponsored enterprise dominance, more attractive financing alternatives such as whole-loan sales, new mortgage regulation, and a weak AAA investor base,” Fitch analysts said in a 2015 outlook piece. Also, despite the industry’s renewed efforts led by the Structured Finance Industry Group to resolve the absence of necessary structural reforms after the financial crisis, progress is...

Jumbo mortgage lending and securitization remained one of the bright spots in the home-loan business during the third quarter of 2014, according to a new Inside Mortgage Finance analysis. A total of $81.8 billion in mortgages exceeding the traditional $417,000 conforming loan limit were produced during the third quarter, up 15.4 percent from the second quarter of 2014. Total mortgage originations were up 11.3 percent over the same period. Total jumbo activity included...[Includes three data charts]

The relatively strong performance of mortgages in vintage non-agency MBS could be disrupted by interest rate resets and the expiration of interest-only periods, according to analysts at Fitch Ratings. Roughly half of all performing first-lien mortgages in non-agency MBS will be exposed to monthly payment increases during the next five years, Fitch said in a report released this week. The rating service determined that if a borrower’s monthly payment increases by 35 percent, the probability of default for the borrower doubles. “The product that’s going to be most affected is...

Originations of jumbo mortgages increased in the third quarter of 2014 compared with the previous quarter, according to a new ranking and analysis by Inside Mortgage Finance, an affiliated publication. Big banks continue to have a strong appetite for jumbos, prompting some smaller banks to sell jumbos to them and keeping some nonbanks out of the jumbo mortgage-backed security market altogether. An estimated $65.0 billion in jumbos were originated in the third quarter of 2014 ... [Includes one data chart]

Goldman Sachs teamed with EverBank Financial to issue a unique jumbo mortgage-backed security last week, its first jumbo MBS since the financial crisis. The $282.80 million GS Mortgage-Backed Securities Trust 2014-EB1 received AAA ratings with credit enhancement of 8.35 percent on the senior tranche. All of the loans in the deal are hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages originated by EverBank. Some 7.9 percent of the ARMs have a 10-year interest-only period. The deal marked a shift ...

One of the chief concerns among some top institutional investors in the non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities market is coming up with a way to price the risks of poorly underwritten or serviced mortgages more effectively. The objective is to price deals so the costs associated with an origination or servicing failure will be more appropriately assigned to those responsible for the defect. During a recent industry conference, a managing director at ...

Chimera Investment emerged from years of accounting issues with an ability to return to the new-issue jumbo mortgage-backed security market. However, the real estate investment trust has focused its new investment strategy on agency MBS as well as multifamily activity and a unique restructuring of vintage non-agency MBS. Matthew Lambiase, president and CEO of the real estate investment trust, said the returns offered by new jumbo MBS aren’t currently attractive. “The economics are ...

Jumbo mortgage-backed securities issued in recent years continue to perform exceptionally well, according to Moody’s Investors Service. The rating service pointed to 10 jumbo MBS issued in 2012 and 2013 by Redwood Trust as having built up credit enhancement on the senior bonds due to a low level of delinquencies. “An analysis of 10 transactions suggests that the low delinquency rate will continue as a result of the improving housing market, even as prepayment rates have remained low ...

Final PMIERS Rule Expected in 1Q15. The Federal Housing Finance Agency has revised its timeline for publishing a final version of the Private Mortgage Insurance Eligibility Requirements, which Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac proposed in July at the direction of the FHFA. The PMIERS will establish capital and other requirements for private mortgage insurers. In a statement, industry trade group U.S. Mortgage Insurers said it has received word from the agency that the final PMIERS would not be published until at least late in the first quarter of 2015. The FHFA initially indicated that a final rule would be issued by yearend 2014. The USMI reiterated its support for an updated PMIERS. Mortgage Executives Concerned About G-Fee Increase. A survey of mortgage executives at this year’s Mortgage Bankers Association annual conference found 53 percent saying that ...

All three mortgage-production channels generated solid increases in new origination volume during the third quarter of 2014, but the correspondent market had a measurably bigger gain, according to a new Inside Mortgage Finance ranking and analysis. An estimated $105 billion of home loans were produced by correspondent originators during the third quarter, up 14.1 percent from the previous quarter. That lifted the correspondent share of new originations to 30.4 percent for the quarter, and 30.3 percent on a year-to-date basis. Correspondents are...[Includes four data charts]