Supporters of the non-agency residential MBS market will have plenty of heavy lifting to do next year, as they face an anticipated increase in volatility for some deals and a continued dominating presence in the broader market by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, among a host of challenges. But at least there’s some degree of regulatory certainty for the market now, and it’s likely that opportunities will emerge for savvy investors to snap up some extra yield, according to a consensus of Wall Street analysts who cover the space. Analysts at Fitch Ratings expect to see the continuation of a slow recovery for the non-agency MBS space in 2015. “The recovery in primary U.S. RMBS issuance remains anemic as the industry continues to face challenges including continued government-sponsored enterprise dominance, more attractive financing alternatives such as whole-loan sales, new mortgage regulation, and a weak AAA investor base,” Fitch analysts said in a 2015 outlook piece. Also, despite the industry’s renewed efforts led by the Structured Finance Industry Group to resolve the absence of necessary structural reforms after the financial crisis, progress is...

The relatively strong performance of mortgages in vintage non-agency MBS could be disrupted by interest rate resets and the expiration of interest-only periods, according to analysts at Fitch Ratings. Roughly half of all performing first-lien mortgages in non-agency MBS will be exposed to monthly payment increases during the next five years, Fitch said in a report released this week. The rating service determined that if a borrower’s monthly payment increases by 35 percent, the probability of default for the borrower doubles. “The product that’s going to be most affected is...

Non-agency MBS backed by nonperforming mortgages that include a program manager benefit from the unique oversight provided by the manager, according to Moody’s Investors Service. However, there are concerns that in some instances the program manager’s interests may conflict with those of senior bondholders. Moody’s said program managers typically set performance targets and monitor servicers’ progress at the loan level, adopt foreclosure strategies that reduce timelines and expenses and direct servicers’ loss mitigation strategies. The managers are more common on non-agency MBS backed by nonperforming loans than on non-agency MBS backed by newly originated mortgages. Program managers are...

Seven years after the financial crisis, market demand for non-agency residential MBS remains feeble, at best – mostly because of higher yields elsewhere, convexity risk concerns, bond liquidity and pricing and missing structural reforms, industry participants say. “Even with the modest amounts of RMBS issuance that we’re seeing, the market is still struggling to digest those securities. We saw that last year and in the beginning of this year. So the question is: what’s driving that lack of demand?” said Rui Pereira, managing director at Fitch Ratings, during a panel discussion at a residential MBS reform symposium sponsored by the Structured Finance Industry Group and Information Management Network in New York City last month. In advance of the public discussion, Pereira queried...

Goldman Sachs teamed with EverBank Financial to issue a unique jumbo mortgage-backed security last week, its first jumbo MBS since the financial crisis. The $282.80 million GS Mortgage-Backed Securities Trust 2014-EB1 received AAA ratings with credit enhancement of 8.35 percent on the senior tranche. All of the loans in the deal are hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages originated by EverBank. Some 7.9 percent of the ARMs have a 10-year interest-only period. The deal marked a shift ...

One of the chief concerns among some top institutional investors in the non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities market is coming up with a way to price the risks of poorly underwritten or serviced mortgages more effectively. The objective is to price deals so the costs associated with an origination or servicing failure will be more appropriately assigned to those responsible for the defect. During a recent industry conference, a managing director at ...

Chimera Investment emerged from years of accounting issues with an ability to return to the new-issue jumbo mortgage-backed security market. However, the real estate investment trust has focused its new investment strategy on agency MBS as well as multifamily activity and a unique restructuring of vintage non-agency MBS. Matthew Lambiase, president and CEO of the real estate investment trust, said the returns offered by new jumbo MBS aren’t currently attractive. “The economics are ...

Proponents of the non-agency market are concerned that the final rule recently issued by federal regulators setting risk-retention requirements for certain securitized mortgages includes an exemption for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Beginning in late 2015, risk-retention requirements for residential mortgages will apply to newly issued non-agency mortgage-backed securities collateralized by loans that don’t meet standards for qualified mortgages. Issuers or lenders contributing to ...

Jumbo mortgage-backed securities issued in recent years continue to perform exceptionally well, according to Moody’s Investors Service. The rating service pointed to 10 jumbo MBS issued in 2012 and 2013 by Redwood Trust as having built up credit enhancement on the senior bonds due to a low level of delinquencies. “An analysis of 10 transactions suggests that the low delinquency rate will continue as a result of the improving housing market, even as prepayment rates have remained low ...

Proponents of the non-agency market have seen little help in recent actions by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The FHFA continued its practice of maintaining high-cost loan limits for the government-sponsored enterprises and the FHFA’s strategic plan puts an emphasis on “preserving and conserving” the GSEs’ assets. Last week, the FHFA announced that conforming loan limits for 2015 will be largely unchanged compared with loan limits for 2014. Loan limits will increase ...