In a few weeks, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will release second quarter results, likely posting positive earnings, but the revenue figures will not include any major boost from legal settlements or the recapture of previously set-aside loan loss reserves. In short, what the two government-sponsored enterprises report in earnings for the second quarter should reflect what their operating profits might look like going forward, given normal market conditions. However, over the past six months, the CEOs of Fannie and Freddie and top officials at the Treasury Department – the owner of its senior preferred shares – have consistently argued...

Production of “agency jumbo” mortgages fell sharply in the first quarter of 2014 and is likely to drop even more as new FHA loan limits show up in endorsement data. According to a new Inside Mortgage Finance analysis, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA saw $10.5 billion in single-family business with loan amounts exceeding the traditional agency limit of $417,000 during the first quarter of 2014. That was down 30.6 percent from the fourth quarter. It was also the lowest three-month volume since the fourth quarter of 2008, not long after dramatically higher “emergency” loan limits were put in place by the agencies. In comparison, originations of non-agency jumbo loans fell...[Includes three data charts]

It looks like the Securities and Exchange Commission has yielded to the majority view of the other federal regulators and agreed to a simplified qualified residential mortgage definition that could make it easier for issuers of non-agency MBS. The SEC dropped its insistence on a downpayment requirement, according to an account this week in the Wall Street Journal. In exchange, the other federal agencies involved in the rulemaking agreed to revisit the QRM issue two years after the final risk-retention rule goes into effect. Deals backed...

The International Organization of Securities Commissions is working on a set of “good practices” to provide to the vast majority of the world’s securities regulators as part of an effort to prompt securities investors to reduce their reliance on credit ratings. While participants in the U.S. structured finance industry suggest that reliance on credit ratings diminished after the financial crisis, many funds continue to have guidelines that reference credit ratings. Some investors, for example, couldn’t buy into risk-sharing transactions from the government-sponsored enterprises unless the deals received investment-grade ratings. IOSCO recently issued...

Strong appetite from lenders for jumbo mortgages wasn’t enough to overcome the overall decline in mortgage production in the first quarter of 2014. Jumbo originations declined by 21.4 percent compared with the fourth quarter of 2013, according to a new ranking and analysis by Inside Nonconforming Markets. And the estimated $44.0 billion in jumbos originated in the first quarter was down by 31.3 percent compared with the same period in 2013. The non-agency jumbo sector has gained some market share during that time as overall production has declined even more. Jumbos accounted for 18.7 percent of total originations in the first quarter of 2014, a level not seen since 2004. Wells Fargo remained...[Includes one data chart]

Economic trends point to continued strong performance for outstanding non-agency MBS, according to Standard & Poor’s. “S&P expects the sector to demonstrate stable characteristics and stable rating trends,” said Jeremy Schneider, a primary credit analyst at the rating service. “Our outlook for collateral performance is strong, and our assessment of the overall sector is stable.” In a report released late last week, S&P said...

Industry representatives and policy wonks diverge in their opinions about whether federal financial regulators will put out a final rule or another proposed final rule as the next step in the long-delayed risk-retention rule for asset securitizers. The qualified residential mortgage designation – which would exempt non-agency MBS from the five percent risk-retention requirement – has been one of the biggest controversies. According to Politico, the Securities and Exchange Commission continues to hold up a final deal because its staff thinks a minimum downpayment requirement for QRM would better protect investors. Under the latest version of the rule, the QRM definition would be synched...

Before the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau implemented standards for qualified mortgages, few lenders admitted that they were willing to offer non-QMs. However, in recent weeks, a number of lenders have touted their entrance into the sector, providing Ethos Lending with plenty of competition. Some of the non-QM lenders are sticking to relatively safe offerings of interest-only mortgages to well-qualified borrowers, while others see a strong market in non-QMs for borrowers that might not qualify for agency financing. This week, Caliber Home Loans announced...

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s ability-to-repay rule is unlikely to prompt a significant increase in litigation, according to DBRS. The rating service last week released its criteria for non-agency MBS with loans subject to the ATR rule and standards for qualified mortgages. “Although there are no historical ATR claim data to help forecast the rate of borrower challenges, DBRS anticipates that any action against lenders within a securitization trust will be minimal due to the uncertainty of borrower success and significant legal costs that potentially can be incurred.” In addition, third-party due-diligence reviews that confirm ATR compliance and representations-and-warranties obligations that motivate lenders to adhere to underwriting guidelines make litigation less likely, the rating service said. DBRS added...

Lenders that upstream product to the megabanks through correspondent loan sales are beginning to worry that because profits were so weak during the first quarter – or nonexistent – they might be cut off as sellers. Moreover, lenders fret that some of the largest players might shut the door on them for a different reason: they can’t deliver enough volume in an origination-challenged market. Speculation has focused...