New regulatory requirements – including a controversial plan to assign ratings on a rotating basis – are encouraging firms to test the traditional approaches to rating MBS and ABS, but some observers say the reliance on an issuer-pay business model will be tough to change. New rating services are coming up with new ways to assess risk with more dynamic, ongoing reviews and more sources of information, and they’re less reliant on being fed information, said Stephen Kudenholdt, co-chair of the capital markets practice at SNR Denton. But the expectation that the market would shift to an investor-paid model clearly hasn’t...

Not much has changed since the 2010 edition of the ABS East Conference, and the outlook for 2012 is hardly encouraging, but conference sponsor Information Management Network drew about 30 percent more participants to its annual industry gathering in Miami Beach this week. As one attendee put it, everybody at the conference was down on the market, yet nobody is buying and nobody is selling. Regulatory uncertainty continues to stymie securitization activity. The federal government still dominates the U.S. mortgage market, with little change in sight. Tepid economic growth is generating lackluster demand for...

Continued stress in the prime non-agency MBS sector, rising delinquencies and the use of a new loan-level loss model have prompted Fitch Ratings to revise loss expectations for more than 40 percent of non-agency pools backed by prime mortgage loans. A recent review of 1,154 rated transactions backed by prime collateral, consisting of approximately 15,000 bonds, caused Fitch to affirm or upgrade an estimated 58 percent of the prime non-agency MBS portfolio and to downgrade the remaining 42 percent, according to a report by the rating agency. At least 60 percent of the downgraded MBS were rated...

Moody’s Investors Service continued to rank as the top credit rating agency in the non-mortgage ABS market, putting its stamp on 66.9 percent of dollar volume of deals issued in the first half of the year, according to a new Inside MBS & ABS analysis. Moody’s was particularly strong in the vehicle finance and business loan sectors, with market shares approaching 75.0 percent in both categories. The company showed relatively little interest in the student ABS market, but ranked second in rating credit card deals. Standard & Poor’s ranked second overall with a 58.3 percent share of ABS ratings. That included a near...(Includes two data charts)

A proposal from federal regulators to change servicer compensation on future Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac MBS to a fee-for-service model could also end up addressing a major investor beef about the non-agency MBS market: poor servicing of distressed loans and misaligned interests. The Federal Housing Finance Agency this week released a discussion paper outlining a radical change from an existing system that pays Fannie and Freddie servicers a minimum servicing fee regardless of the loan status. The proposed system features a low flat fee for handling performing loans with increased compensation for...

The Treasury Market Practices Group late last week clarified its recommended fails charge trading practice for agency MBS to limit the scope to pass-throughs, where fails are most likely to happen. “The agency debt and agency MBS trading practice has been updated to reflect the TMPG’s recommendation that a fails charge apply to agency pass-through MBS issued or guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae,” the group said. The original recommendation was that the charge apply to agency MBS issued or backed by Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie Mae, which also issue most REMICs backed by agency pass-throughs. The TMPG has not...

The supply of MBS in the market edged slightly higher in the second quarter of 2011, appearing to stem a nearly two-year decline in the market, according to a new Inside MBS & ABS analysis. A total of $6.58 trillion of MBS were outstanding at the end of June, up 0.3 percent from the first quarter. The MBS market was still down 1.7 percent from a year ago. All of the growth came from Ginnie Mae and Fannie Mae. The supply of Ginnie single-family MBS rose 4.0 percent in the first quarter, hitting a record $1.12 trillion and extending a vigorous growth trend since the housing market began to unravel in 2007. Ginnie MBS accounted for...(Includes one data chart)

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage-backed securities continued to be the preferred investment option for the Federal Home Loan Banks during the second quarter of 2011 with only a paltry decrease from the previous quarter, according to a new analysis and ranking by Inside The GSEs based on data provided by the Federal Housing Finance Agency.Ginnie Mae securities, meanwhile, continued to grow in popularity within the FHLBank system during the quarter.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s legal action late last week against many of the nation’s largest financial institutions on the grounds they misled Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac about the quality of subprime and Alt A MBS purchased by the government-sponsored enterprises has few positives but plenty of negative potential consequences for the market, experts say. The 17 separate lawsuits filed by the FHFA seek unspecified damages on $196 billion in mortgage securities the two GSEs purchased, mostly between 2005 and 2008. The agency conducted extensive loan-level reviews that allegedly revealed widespread discrepancies between... [Includes two pages of data]

Private investors in agency MBS could lose $13 billion to $15 billion from a new government effort to help current Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA borrowers refinance, according to a new Congressional Budget Office staff working paper. The Obama administration is expected to announce a revved-up refinance program as part of a new strategy to strengthen economic growth. A “stylized” refinance program analyzed by the CBO would have a relatively small impact on the overall economy, the analysts said. The biggest impact would be on private MBS investors and the estimated 2.9 million households that would likely be brought into the...