The prepayment rate on agency MBS hit a high for the year in September and that’s expected to be topped again in October. Analysts note that their prepayment models are off due to changes in lenders’ practices.
With lenders pushing mortgages that include a temporary buydown feature, MBS investors are pondering prepayment behavior for the loans. Expect loans with temporary buydowns to exhibit prepayment speeds similar to ARMs, according to an industry analyst.
KBRA said that third-quarter MBS issuance volume didn’t meet its expectations and will drop rapidly in the coming year. Meanwhile, both DBRS and Moody’s noted that performance is stabilizing.