Analysts expect the U.S. economic recovery to continue on a slow, weak path into 2013 with the potential for a new recession that could weaken the residential MBS market. At Standard & Poor’s, analysts predict a “slow and uneven” economic recovery with a 15 percent to 20 percent chance of another recession that would be less severe than the 2008-2009 financial crisis but potent enough to sap the MBS market. S&P assumes a reversal in home prices and unemployment rising to near 9 percent in 2013, which could hamper borrower capacity to make their mortgage payments. Overall, S&P’s outlook for the single-family MBS market is...

A new non-agency jumbo MBS from a subsidiary of Credit Suisse Group includes some key differences compared with Redwood Trust deals, while pumping life into the non-agency market. DLJ Mortgage Capital issued a $329.89 million non-agency jumbo MBS late last week via a private placement; it was the company’s third of 2012. CSMC Trust 2012-CIM3 received a AAA rating from Standard & Poor’s with credit enhancement of 5.85 percent on the top-rated tranche. The new Credit Suisse deal included...

Ginnie Mae is increasing its scrutiny of issuers and tightening the screening of new issuer applicants to ensure that all participants in its mortgage-backed securities program fulfill their obligations. The agency is concerned about issuers coming in with little understanding of how the program works and what their responsibilities are, and putting Ginnie Mae at risk, said Michael Drayne, senior vice president at Ginnie Mae’s Office of Issuer and Portfolio Management, during a recent webinar hosted by Inside Mortgage Finance. Drayne noted Ginnie Mae’s success, saying that the only way it would not be profitable is ...

Mortgage-backed securities production by the top Ginnie Mae issuers in the third quarter of 2012 slipped but not by enough to offset the 32.1 percent gain on a year-over-year basis, according to an Inside FHA Lending analysis of Ginnie Mae data. Ginnie Mae MBS issuance fell by a mere 0.1 percent from the second quarter, a hiccup that would have been easily cured had any of the top five issuers posted even a modest gain. All five issuers saw their issuances fall during the quarter. The top issuers reported a total of $100.57 billion in MBS sold to investors at the end of the third quarter, down from $100.62 billion the previous quarter. The slip disrupted an ...

The top three rating services continued to dominate the new issuance market in non-mortgage ABS during the first nine months of 2012, according to a new Inside MBS & ABS analysis, but the biggest player in the non-agency MBS market was DBRS. Moody’s Investors Service rated 69.7 percent of the non-mortgage ABS issued in 2012 as of the end of the third quarter, down slightly from its 70.4 percent share of the 2011 market. The company’s strengths were in vehicle finance and business loan ABS, where it captured more than three-quarters of new issuance by dollar volume. Standard & Poor’s ranked...[Includes two data charts]

Participants in collateralized loan obligation deals remain optimistic about the future of the market although they caution that macroeconomic issues might still derail the product’s slow return. In a panel discussion hosted by Standard & Poor’s last week, CLO market executives maintained a positive outlook for CLO performance as the market experienced a resurgence early this year. The market collapsed after the financial crisis but has apparently been resuscitated by investors hungry for high-risk, high-return securities. CLOs acquire...

Delinquencies on non-agency MBS will likely increase temporarily due to Hurricane Sandy, according to industry analysts, but long-term losses due to the storm are expected to be minimal. Insurance will play a key factor in overall losses, and estimates vary significantly on the extent of coverage in the affected areas. Moody’s Investors Service projected this week that non-agency MBS are unlikely to suffer material losses due to Sandy even though the affiliated Moody’s Analytics estimated the damage to residential housing from the storm will hit $10.5 billion. “Even if damages exceed...

The Securities and Exchange Commission last week approved a proposal from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority to increase transparency regarding MBS and ABS trading. Hearing no public comments after it announced the proposal in September, the SEC agreed to FINRA’s plan to establish public reporting of trading in specified government-backed mortgage bonds and securities backed by Small Business Administration loans. According to the SEC notice published Oct. 23, the plan would leverage...

New pool level data issued by Ginnie Mae reveal a rising share of FHA-insured loans that have refinanced with grandfathered mortgage insurance premiums (MIP) in new Ginnie Mae mortgage-backed securities issuances, according to analysts. Of particular interest to investors is the share of borrowers with existing FHA-insured home loans who took advantage of an opportunity to refinance on advantageous terms under the FHA Streamline Refinance program, said analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Under the revised rules of the FHA Streamline Refi program, FHA-insured mortgages endorsed before June 1, 2009, were ...